New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Ryman Healthcare (RYM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>RYM is well positioned for a potential downturn, given reduced gearing and limited development exposure.</li><li>RYM's defensive care business represents ~25% of our forecast earnings growth from FY26 to FY29.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Ryman Healthcare (RYM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.RYM is well positioned for a potential downturn, given reduced gearing and limited development exposure.RYM's defensive care business represents ~25% of our forecast earnings growth from FY26 to FY29.

Ryman Healthcare Time To Care, Not Fear—Up To OUTPERFORM

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM’s) 4Q26 sales update was modestly softer than expected.</li><li>RYM has indicated FY26 free cash flow will be +NZ$180m, a solid outcome and ~+NZ$45m ahead of our forecasts.</li><li>Consistent with Summerset (SUM’s) update last week, RYM is yet to see any material impact from the conflict in the Middle East.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM’s) 4Q26 sales update was modestly softer than expected.RYM has indicated FY26 free cash flow will be +NZ$180m, a solid outcome and ~+NZ$45m ahead of our forecasts.Consistent with Summerset (SUM’s) update last week, RYM is yet to see any material impact from the conflict in the Middle East.

Ryman Healthcare (RYM): 4Q26 Sales And Trading Update

Radius Residential Care / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Radius Residential Care (RAD) has announced the acquisition of the Karori Village care home in Wellington from Metlifecare for NZ$13.6m (with settlement expected in late May 2026).</li><li>We view the transaction as attractive, supported by management's expectation for the home to be immediately NPAT accretive in FY27.</li><li>Our blended spot valuation rises +2cps to NZ$0.54.</li></ul>

Radius Residential Care (RAD) has announced the acquisition of the Karori Village care home in Wellington from Metlifecare for NZ$13.6m (with settlement expected in late May 2026).We view the transaction as attractive, supported by management's expectation for the home to be immediately NPAT accretive in FY27.Our blended spot valuation rises +2cps to NZ$0.54.

Radius Residential Care Care Arrives In The Capital

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.</li><li>NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.</li><li>SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) will report its 1H25 result on Thursday, 28 August.</li><li>We forecast ~+30% annuity earnings growth year-on-year and net debt to increase by &gt;+NZ$50m over the half, with some risk of a larger rise.</li><li>Overall, we are attracted to the care suite model and see it as a positive for SUM to reduce net debt and improve returns on its care assets.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) will report its 1H25 result on Thursday, 28 August.We forecast ~+30% annuity earnings growth year-on-year and net debt to increase by &gt;+NZ$50m over the half, with some risk of a larger rise.Overall, we are attracted to the care suite model and see it as a positive for SUM to reduce net debt and improve returns on its care assets.

Summerset Group 1H25 Preview—Care Suites To The Rescue

New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Ryman Healthcare Time To Care, Not Fear—Up To OUTPERFORM

We upgrade our rating on Ryman Healthcare (RYM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM. RYM is well positioned for a potential downturn, given reduced gearing...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare (RYM): 4Q26 Sales And Trading Update

Ryman Healthcare (RYM’s) 4Q26 sales update was modestly softer than expected. RYM has indicated FY26 free cash flow will be +NZ$180m, a solid...

Forsyth Barr

Radius Residential Care Care Arrives In The Capital

Radius Residential Care (RAD) has announced the acquisition of the Karori Village care home in Wellington from Metlifecare for NZ$13.6m (with...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group 1H25 Preview—Care Suites To The Rescue

We forecast ~+30% annuity earnings growth year-on-year and net debt to increase by >+NZ$50m over the half, with some risk of a larger rise.

Forsyth Barr

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