New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset reported a strong FY24 result with contracted sales up 30% YTD and new sales cash margins remaining high despite concerns over increasing net debt.</li><li>Underlying earnings surpassed expectations due to higher new sales gains and lower P&L interest, although net debt rose by NZ$320mn, 23% for FY24.</li><li>The Australian operations continue to be a drag on cash generation, with a lower build guidance for Australia (50-80) compared to expectations of 100.</li></ul>

Summerset reported a strong FY24 result with contracted sales up 30% YTD and new sales cash margins remaining high despite concerns over increasing net debt.Underlying earnings surpassed expectations due to higher new sales gains and lower P&L interest, although net debt rose by NZ$320mn, 23% for FY24.The Australian operations continue to be a drag on cash generation, with a lower build guidance for Australia (50-80) compared to expectations of 100.

Summerset (SUM): FY24 Result — Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported strong FY24 results, with annuity EPS, EBITDA, and net tangible assets (NTA) all growing over +10%, through what has potentially been the toughest economic back drop for aged care operators since SUM listed.</li><li>Importantly, SUM delivered a confident message around current demand, with sales contracts and enquires up strongly so far in FY25.</li><li>Over the last few periods, SUM has consistently improved disclosure and transparency. </li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported strong FY24 results, with annuity EPS, EBITDA, and net tangible assets (NTA) all growing over +10%, through what has potentially been the toughest economic back drop for aged care operators since SUM listed.Importantly, SUM delivered a confident message around current demand, with sales contracts and enquires up strongly so far in FY25.Over the last few periods, SUM has consistently improved disclosure and transparency. 

Summerset Group - FY24 Result—Staying the Course

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) will report its FY24 results on Friday, 28 February.</li><li>We expect solid growth across revenue, annuity EBITDA and underlying earnings, but see room for disappointment, particularly with its Australian expansion and net debt growth.</li><li>SUM mentioned at its early December 2024 investor day it was tracking broadly in line with then current consensus earnings estimates (~NZ$204m underlying earnings), but the components between new sale gains and annuity EBITDA will be important. </li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) will report its FY24 results on Friday, 28 February.We expect solid growth across revenue, annuity EBITDA and underlying earnings, but see room for disappointment, particularly with its Australian expansion and net debt growth.SUM mentioned at its early December 2024 investor day it was tracking broadly in line with then current consensus earnings estimates (~NZ$204m underlying earnings), but the components between new sale gains and annuity EBITDA will be important. 

Summerset Group - FY24 Preview—Cost Control Vs Aussie Woes

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) held a confident investor day focused on its flagship St Johns village, new designs, Australia, and sales.</li><li>In conjunction with its investor day, it announced four land acquisitions, all in New Zealand, and included a visit to what we suspect will be a future flagship broadacre development in Belmont, Auckland.</li><li>The Belmont land parcel will be paid for in part by issuing ~1% of new shares to the vendor, an innovative and sensible funding solution.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) held a confident investor day focused on its flagship St Johns village, new designs, Australia, and sales.In conjunction with its investor day, it announced four land acquisitions, all in New Zealand, and included a visit to what we suspect will be a future flagship broadacre development in Belmont, Auckland.The Belmont land parcel will be paid for in part by issuing ~1% of new shares to the vendor, an innovative and sensible funding solution.

Summerset Group - St Johns to Deliver Balance Sheet Salvation?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

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<ul><li>SUM announced its 1H24 result with underlying profit of NZ$89.9m, at the top end of the guidance range (NZ$87-$90m), slightly ahead of both BPe (+1.6%) and VA consensus (+1.2%).</li><li>No full year profit guidance, but equally no change to SUM’s target for 675-725 new homes under ORA in CY24.</li><li>Key takeouts include: Deploying capital into new sites – SUM has acquired a new site at Mission Hills, Napier for c.300 units (pricing undisclosed) which is ‘shovel ready’ and where it has market visibility as its 5th village in the Hawke’s Bay region.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SUM announced its 1H24 result with underlying profit of NZ$89.9m, at the top end of the guidance range (NZ$87-$90m), slightly ahead of both BPe (+1.6%) and VA consensus (+1.2%).No full year profit guidance, but equally no change to SUM’s target for 675-725 new homes under ORA in CY24.Key takeouts include: Deploying capital into new sites – SUM has acquired a new site at Mission Hills, Napier for c.300 units (pricing undisclosed) which is ‘shovel ready’ and where it has market visibility as its 5th village in the Hawke’s Bay region.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Summerset Group (SUM.NZ): SUM Still yet to Shine Recommendation

New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Summerset (SUM): FY24 Result — Initial Impressions

Summerset reported a strong FY24 result with contracted sales up 30% YTD and new sales cash margins remaining high despite concerns over...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group - FY24 Result—Staying the Course

Summerset (SUM) reported strong FY24 results, with annuity EPS, EBITDA, and net tangible assets (NTA) all growing over +10%, through what has...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group - FY24 Preview—Cost Control Vs Aussie Woes

We expect solid growth across revenue, annuity EBITDA and underlying earnings, but see room for disappointment, particularly with its Australian...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group - St Johns to Deliver Balance Sheet Salvation?

Summerset (SUM) held a confident investor day focused on its flagship St Johns village, new designs, Australia, and sales. In conjunction with its...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group (SUM.NZ): SUM Still yet to Shine Recommendation

SUM announced its 1H24 result with underlying profit of NZ$89.9m, at the top end of the guidance range (NZ$87-$90m), slightly ahead of both BPe...

Bell Potter

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