Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Henderson Land Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu will deliver his inaugural policy address on the 19 October, where he is expected to announce a number of “ground-breaking” measures.</li>
<li>One such measure is non-residents who have owned property in Hong Kong for 3+ years <em>may</em> get their extra stamp duty refunded - if they take up permanent residency.</li>
<li>Secondary home prices have declined  8% year-to-date, and are approaching a five-year low. Goldman Sachs expects home prices to decline 30% in 2023 from last year’s levels.  </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu will deliver his inaugural policy address on the 19 October, where he is expected to announce a number of “ground-breaking” measures.
One such measure is non-residents who have owned property in Hong Kong for 3+ years may get their extra stamp duty refunded - if they take up permanent residency.
Secondary home prices have declined  8% year-to-date, and are approaching a five-year low. Goldman Sachs expects home prices to decline 30% in 2023 from last year’s levels.  


Stamp Duty Relief For Hong Kong Foreigners. But Wait ...

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This week some of the strongest names in HSI are covered.</li>
<li>In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends or act as a continuation pattens.</li>
<li>These are likely to prove crucial to Hong Kong and Greater China.</li>
</ul>


This week some of the strongest names in HSI are covered.
In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends or act as a continuation pattens.
These are likely to prove crucial to Hong Kong and Greater China.


HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC, Fl2 Csop Hsi, Fi2 Csop Hsi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC, Fl2 Csop Hsi, Fi2 Csop Hsi.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Sun Hung Kai Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As the largest real estate company in Hong Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties has well diversified businesses in Hong Kong and China</li>
<li>SHKP is viewed as a Hong Kong proxy because of its business origination.  Also, a trade on SHKP is a value play</li>
<li>Macro backdrop is supportive.  We think the potential for downside surprise is very limited, and valuation is undemanding</li>
</ul>


As the largest real estate company in Hong Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties has well diversified businesses in Hong Kong and China
SHKP is viewed as a Hong Kong proxy because of its business origination.  Also, a trade on SHKP is a value play
Macro backdrop is supportive.  We think the potential for downside surprise is very limited, and valuation is undemanding


SHKP 16 HK: A Very Safe Play to Bet on Hong Kong Future

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Henderson Land Development / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land Development (12 HK)</a> will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.</li>
<li>Estimated passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land Development (12 HK)</a> is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).</li>
<li>The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.</li>
</ul>



Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.


Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

Hong Kong

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited develops and invests in properties. The Company operates and manages hotels, properties, car parking, and transportation infrastructures. Sun Hung Kai Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

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Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)

Stamp Duty Relief For Hong Kong Foreigners. But Wait ...

Lifting the stamp duty may firm home prices but certainly won't propel price growth. The impact on sales of mass residential projects will be...

David Blennerhassett

HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings

In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends...

Untying The Gordian Knot

HK Short Interest Weekly: Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 30th and highlight short interest changes in Catl, Horizonrobot, ICBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SHKP 16 HK: A Very Safe Play to Bet on Hong Kong Future

With the China easing and US interest rate cut, we think the macro backdrop is supportive for a Hong Kong re-rating. Sun Hung Kai Properties is...

Jacob Cheng

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June and passives need to buy a fair bit. Positioning...

Brian Freitas

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