Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q1FY25 results of the leading Indian pharmaceutical companies showed healthy and broad-based growth of the Indian pharmaceutical market, which grew 8.7% in Q1FY25.</li>
<li>Most of the top listed players registered double-digit revenue growth from their respective India formulation segments. Focus on chronic therapies remained major growth driver.</li>
<li>The Nifty Pharma Index has outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50, rising 32% YTD. The benchmark index has gained just 13% over the same period.</li>
</ul>


Q1FY25 results of the leading Indian pharmaceutical companies showed healthy and broad-based growth of the Indian pharmaceutical market, which grew 8.7% in Q1FY25.
Most of the top listed players registered double-digit revenue growth from their respective India formulation segments. Focus on chronic therapies remained major growth driver.
The Nifty Pharma Index has outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50, rising 32% YTD. The benchmark index has gained just 13% over the same period.


Indian Pharmaceutical Market: On A Healthy Growth Path; Momentum to Continue in Rest of the Year

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Bangladesh, India's <strong>2nd largest trading partner</strong> in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. </li>
<li>Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. </li>
<li>There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.</li>
</ul>


Bangladesh, India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. 
Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. 
There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.


Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

India

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company that manufactures and sells pharmaceutical formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). It offers a wide range of products across chronic and acute therapies, including generics, branded generics, and specialty products. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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Sun Pharma (SUNP IN)

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Indian Pharmaceutical Market: On A Healthy Growth Path; Momentum to Continue in Rest of the Year

Indian pharmaceutical market grew 8.7% in Q1FY25. Most of the top players reported double-digit revenue growth in domestic market. Nifty Pharma...

Tina Banerjee

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Indian Pharmaceutical Market: On A Healthy Growth Path; Momentum to Continue in Rest of the Year

​Indian pharmaceutical market grew 8.7% in Q1FY25. Most of the top players reported double-digit revenue growth in domestic market. Nifty Pharma...

Tina Banerjee

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

​Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Indian pharmaceutical market grew 8.7% in Q1FY25. Most of the top players reported double-digit revenue growth in domestic market. Nifty Pharma...

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...