Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US Treasury yields declined 4-5 bps across the curve yesterday, on account of softer-than-expected consumer confidence data and amid Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks on rate cuts.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST declined 4 bps to 3.83%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.30%.</li>
<li>Equities rallied on easing tensions in the Middle East, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


US Treasury yields declined 4-5 bps across the curve yesterday, on account of softer-than-expected consumer confidence data and amid Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks on rate cuts.
The yield on the 2Y UST declined 4 bps to 3.83%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.30%.
Equities rallied on easing tensions in the Middle East, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.</li>
<li>The fourth week (this past week) saw net outflows on low volume as SOUTHBOUND investors sold SOEs quite heavily. </li>
<li>9 of the top 10 Net Sells as % of Volume this past week had China, Beijing, or Shanghai as the first word in their name.</li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
The fourth week (this past week) saw net outflows on low volume as SOUTHBOUND investors sold SOEs quite heavily. 
9 of the top 10 Net Sells as % of Volume this past week had China, Beijing, or Shanghai as the first word in their name.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Apr 2025); First Net Sell in Ages, Led by Heavy SOE Selling

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.</li>
<li>That's decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).</li>
<li>Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more. </li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.
That's decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-in-hindsight-on-2024-and-draw-the-line-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line' survey</a>, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025</li>
<li>Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024</li>
<li>Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025
Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024
Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)


China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

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Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US Treasury yields declined 4-5 bps across the curve yesterday, on account of softer-than-expected consumer confidence data and amid Fed Chairman...

Lucror Analytics

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Apr 2025); First Net Sell in Ages, Led by Heavy SOE Selling

SOUTHBOUND activity low again this 4-day week. Trade tantrums not helping, but markets up despite SOUTHBOUND net selling for the first time in a...

Travis Lundy

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

This note is a weekly (Apr 11-17, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

Chinese banks get their expected capital injection and the world awaits tariffs but SOUTHBOUND investors continue to buy, making for a record...

Travis Lundy

China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)