Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 6th): BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-queensland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16606:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU)</a> are illustrative of risks for the mainstream banks in Australia and market expectations</li>
<li>Even with almost all residential mortgage loans, BOQ's credit costs rose from AUD13m to AUD71m YoY and Pillar 3 data shows mortgage NPLs up nearly 10% in past 2 months</li>
<li>Net interest income only +6% YoY and -8% HoH, with operating costs +8% YoY and fee income down, there is nothing core holding the P&amp;L together</li>
</ul>


The results for Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) are illustrative of risks for the mainstream banks in Australia and market expectations
Even with almost all residential mortgage loans, BOQ's credit costs rose from AUD13m to AUD71m YoY and Pillar 3 data shows mortgage NPLs up nearly 10% in past 2 months
Net interest income only +6% YoY and -8% HoH, with operating costs +8% YoY and fee income down, there is nothing core holding the P&amp;L together


BOQ - Illustrative of Australia Bank Risks Even for Nearly Pure Mortgage Lender and Mkt Expectations

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.
There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

<ul>
<li>New release shows surge in Australia residential mortgage non-performing exposures QoQ</li>
<li>From March 2023 to June 2023 these NPLs rose by 10.5% and <span>this is not an annualized rate</span>
</li>
<li>Its total NZ non-performing loans rose from AUD671m to AUD741m or 10.4% QoQ</li>
</ul>


New release shows surge in Australia residential mortgage non-performing exposures QoQ
From March 2023 to June 2023 these NPLs rose by 10.5% and this is not an annualized rate

Its total NZ non-performing loans rose from AUD671m to AUD741m or 10.4% QoQ


Westpac - Non-Performing Exposures in Australia Mortgages Surge in June & NZ Non-Performing Loans

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We turn to granular Pillar 3 disclosure of NAB seeing divergent moves in PD buckets</li>
<li>Its worst PD buckets are seeing sharp rise, while best buckets are falling, flat-ish</li>
<li>LT credit cost data, PD buckets, timely CBA data, suggests higher provision costs</li>
</ul>


We turn to granular Pillar 3 disclosure of NAB seeing divergent moves in PD buckets
Its worst PD buckets are seeing sharp rise, while best buckets are falling, flat-ish
LT credit cost data, PD buckets, timely CBA data, suggests higher provision costs


NAB - Pillar 3 Data Shows Worst PD Buckets Highest Growth, Best Buckets Down, Risk To Credit Costs

Australia

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

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Suncorp (SUN AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 6th): BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BOQ - Illustrative of Australia Bank Risks Even for Nearly Pure Mortgage Lender and Mkt Expectations

Results today show the rampant deterioration in credit metrics, causing profit to fall 70% YoY, with other factors also at play. Read-through to...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Westpac - Non-Performing Exposures in Australia Mortgages Surge in June & NZ Non-Performing Loans

Surging Australia residential mortgage non-performing loans in June QoQ and also in total NZ loans. Stressed construction ratio is also rising...

Daniel Tabbush

NAB - Pillar 3 Data Shows Worst PD Buckets Highest Growth, Best Buckets Down, Risk To Credit Costs

Pillar 3 data at NAB shows the worst PD buckets seeing rising EAD while the best PD buckets are flat or falling. LT credit costs are around 2-3x...

Daniel Tabbush

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