Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit cost surge in 1H23 is strangely tempered in 2H23 results, although still rising</li>
<li>Despite rising credit costs, they remain at relatively low levels compared with history</li>
<li>Data on credit metrics suggest to us that credit costs should have been higher in 2H23</li>
</ul>


Credit cost surge in 1H23 is strangely tempered in 2H23 results, although still rising
Despite rising credit costs, they remain at relatively low levels compared with history
Data on credit metrics suggest to us that credit costs should have been higher in 2H23


CBA - The Applause Over Results Seem Misplaced, Considering Credit Metrics

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has decided not to authorize the ANZ takeover of Suncorp-Metway Bank</li>
<li>Can be positive for ANZ without executive risk, integration costs, unknown new risks</li>
<li>Differentiator ANZ to peers its islessor exposure to Australia, and better credit metrics</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has decided not to authorize the ANZ takeover of Suncorp-Metway Bank
Can be positive for ANZ without executive risk, integration costs, unknown new risks
Differentiator ANZ to peers its islessor exposure to Australia, and better credit metrics


ANZ - ACCC Denies ANZ's Takeover of Suncorp, May Be Positive for ANZ After All

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue Metals, BHP, Lynas Rare Earth, Suncorp, Woolworths.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue Metals, BHP, Lynas Rare Earth, Suncorp, Woolworths.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 14th): Fortescue Metals, BHP, Lynas Rare Earth, Suncorp, Woolworths

<ul>
<li>One of main criteria for ACCC to allow ANZ's takeover of Suncorp centers around competition, will it worsen as a result</li>
<li>There are 8 banks in Australia with over 100 branches, if the takeover is allowed, this puts the 127 Suncorp branches into the 668 branch stable of ANZ</li>
<li>There is plenty of expert and public testimony that such a merger would see less competition especially in SME and agribusiness loans, and possibly limit physical access to banking</li>
</ul>


One of main criteria for ACCC to allow ANZ's takeover of Suncorp centers around competition, will it worsen as a result
There are 8 banks in Australia with over 100 branches, if the takeover is allowed, this puts the 127 Suncorp branches into the 668 branch stable of ANZ
There is plenty of expert and public testimony that such a merger would see less competition especially in SME and agribusiness loans, and possibly limit physical access to banking


Suncorp - Decision on ANZ Takeover In Weeks, Competition Can Worsen If Allowed

<ul>
<li>News out this morning that HDFC Bank and HDFC merger became effective 1 July </li>
<li>This occurred after the Boards approved the merger scheme on 30 June</li>
<li>Funding cost benefits, operating cost synergies, product cross-sale: major benefits</li>
</ul>


News out this morning that HDFC Bank and HDFC merger became effective 1 July 
This occurred after the Boards approved the merger scheme on 30 June
Funding cost benefits, operating cost synergies, product cross-sale: major benefits


HDFC - Amalgamated, We List Its Own Key Synergies, Which Appear Tremendous

Australia

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

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Suncorp (SUN AU)

CBA - The Applause Over Results Seem Misplaced, Considering Credit Metrics

CBA beat on earnings, but we believe that much of this was achieved through fairly low credit costs, despite what appears to be worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ - ACCC Denies ANZ's Takeover of Suncorp, May Be Positive for ANZ After All

ACCC denies ANZ takeover of Suncorp, which can be positive for ANZ. Focus now on its better credit metrics, less Australia lending than peers and...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 14th): Fortescue Metals, BHP, Lynas Rare Earth, Suncorp, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue Metals, BHP, Lynas Rare Earth, Suncorp,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Suncorp - Decision on ANZ Takeover In Weeks, Competition Can Worsen If Allowed

ACCC will decide on ANZ's takeover of Suncorp by 28 July and we remain concerned that at least the condition related to competition will not be met.

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC - Amalgamated, We List Its Own Key Synergies, Which Appear Tremendous

We provide a simple list here of the merger benefits as laid out by HDFC, now that merger is done, today. The initial Insight I want to Boomerang...

Daniel Tabbush

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