Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q3FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 19%/6% YoY across the HSIE coverage universe (~208 stocks), their three-year CAGR being 15%/15%</li><li>Our coverage universe saw strong YoY growth in auto, lending financials, capital goods, staples and power sectors</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Q3FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 19%/6% YoY across the HSIE coverage universe (~208 stocks), their three-year CAGR being 15%/15%Our coverage universe saw strong YoY growth in auto, lending financials, capital goods, staples and power sectorsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy: Commodity pressure easing, margin expansion on the cards

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain our BUY rating on Nuvoco Vistas (Nuvoco) with an unchanged target price of INR 827/share (11x its consolidated Sep-23E EBITDA). We continue to like it for its leadership presence in the east, its various margin initiatives, and continued deleveraging of its balance sheet. Weak demand in the east and high opex hit its profitability in Q2. The impact, however, was moderated by rising contribution of synergy benefits and ongoing cost reductions. While consolidated revenue grew 13% YoY to INR 20.20bn, EBITDA fell 9% YoY to INR 3.31bn.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain our BUY rating on Nuvoco Vistas (Nuvoco) with an unchanged target price of INR 827/share (11x its consolidated Sep-23E EBITDA). We continue to like it for its leadership presence in the east, its various margin initiatives, and continued deleveraging of its balance sheet. Weak demand in the east and high opex hit its profitability in Q2. The impact, however, was moderated by rising contribution of synergy benefits and ongoing cost reductions. While consolidated revenue grew 13% YoY to INR 20.20bn, EBITDA fell 9% YoY to INR 3.31bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Godrej Consumers, Astral, Oil India, Vinati Organics, Nuvoco Vistas, Sundram...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sona-blw-precision-forgings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32993:1" rel="noopener">Sona BLW Precision Forgings (SPF IN)</a>/Sona Comstar is one of India’s leading auto technology companies that designs, manufactures, and supplies highly engineered, mission-critical systems and components. Sona Comstar is looking to raise Rs60 billion ($820 million) through an IPO in India as soon as April, according to press reports. The offer comprises a primary raise of Rs3 billion ($41 million) and a secondary raise of Rs57 billion ($777 million). The selling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Group LP (BX US)</a>.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Sona Comstar’s broad product portfolio which spans both conventional and electrified powertrains position it to gain from high growth auto industry trends (rising penetration of mild hybrids/full hybrids and battery electric vehicles) as well as various Government of India initiatives to spur the growth of the auto industry (such as recently announced Rs570 billion production-linked incentive scheme). Overall, we think that Sona Comstar is an attractive and alternative play on the electric vehicle market.</p></div>

Sona BLW Precision Forgings (SPF IN)/Sona Comstar is one of India’s leading auto technology companies that designs, manufactures, and supplies highly engineered, mission-critical systems and components. Sona Comstar is looking to raise Rs60 billion ($820 million) through an IPO in India as soon as April, according to press reports. The offer comprises a primary raise of Rs3 billion ($41 million) and a secondary raise of Rs57 billion ($777 million). The selling shareholder is Blackstone Group LP (BX US).  Sona Comstar’s broad product portfolio which spans both conventional and electrified powertrains position it to gain from high growth auto industry trends (rising penetration of mild hybrids/full hybrids and battery electric vehicles) as well as various Government of India initiatives to spur the growth of the auto industry (such as recently announced Rs570 billion production-linked incentive scheme). Overall, we think that Sona Comstar is an attractive and alternative play on the electric vehicle market.

Sona Comstar IPO Initiation: Shifting Gears

<p>Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.</p>

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

India

Sundram Fasteners Limited manufactures a wide range of nuts, bolts and related fastener equipment.  Products include high-tensile fasteners and equipment for the automotive industry, such as cold extruded parts, radiator caps and gear shifters.  The Company also manufactures water pumps and fuel pumps.

Sundram Fasteners (SF IN)

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

India Equity Strategy: Commodity pressure easing, margin expansion on the cards

Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 19%/6% YoY across the HSIE coverage universe (~208 stocks), their three-year CAGR being 15%/15%

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Godrej Consumers, Astral, Oil India, Vinati Organics, Nuvoco Vistas, Sundram...

Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain our BUY rating on Nuvoco Vistas (Nuvoco) with an unchanged target price of INR 827/share (11x its consolidated Sep-23E...

HDFC Securities

Sona Comstar IPO Initiation: Shifting Gears

Sona Comstar is looking to raise Rs60 bn ($820 m) through an IPO in India. Overall, we think that Sona Comstar is an attractive and alternative...

Arun George

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research