Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The following is an in-depth review of the drugstore sector and the impact of the Cocokara Fine and Matsukiyo merger on other key drugstore stocks, highlighting the likely winners and losers in the next 3-5 years.
The drugstore sector is about to consolidate more rapidly than at any time in its history, with big implications for the cosmetics, medicines, food and toiletries industries and, among retailers, worries for supermarkets and convenience stores.
The imminent merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> will trigger a wave of other mergers among competitors big and small, creating a modernised sector with huge buying power across many product categories.
In food, in particular, this buying power is already causing headaches for retailers in regions like Kyushu where drugstore discounters are strong and this trend will play out across Japan over the next few years.  While the drugstore market may not grow, its leaders will.

The following is an in-depth review of the drugstore sector and the impact of the Cocokara Fine and Matsukiyo merger on other key drugstore stocks, highlighting the likely winners and losers in the next 3-5 years.
The drugstore sector is about to consolidate more rapidly than at any time in its history, with big implications for the cosmetics, medicines, food and toiletries industries and, among retailers, worries for supermarkets and convenience stores.
The imminent merger of Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) will trigger a wave of other mergers among competitors big and small, creating a modernised sector with huge buying power across many product categories.
In food, in particular, this buying power is already causing headaches for retailers in regions like Kyushu where drugstore discounters are strong and this trend will play out across Japan over the next few years.  While the drugstore market may not grow, its leaders will.

Japanese Drugstores: With Maturity Comes Marriage

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/227/original/2020-02-11_05-05-13.png?1581376613" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117227"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>10TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 189 results and 93 revision announcements had little impact on our aggregate Scores, although decliners still outweighed improvers by a factor of two times. Amongst larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-estate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:566:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)</a> produced the best quarter-on-quarter change in Score, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sundrug-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12615:1" rel="noopener">Sundrug (9989 JP)</a> being one of the worst. Today is a public holiday (kenkoku kinen no hi), and so the next roundup will appear on Wednesday morning. <hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/228/original/2020-02-11_05-08-14.png?1581377317" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117228"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - Monday's main moves were upwards for Real Estate and Media (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP)</a>) and downwards (again) for Other Commercial Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hamamatsu-photonics-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14074:1" rel="noopener">Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP)</a>) and Building Materials (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichias-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14674:1" rel="noopener">Nichias (5393 JP)</a>).

Source • Japan Analytics10TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 189 results and 93 revision announcements had little impact on our aggregate Scores, although decliners still outweighed improvers by a factor of two times. Amongst larger caps, Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP) produced the best quarter-on-quarter change in Score, with Sundrug (9989 JP) being one of the worst. Today is a public holiday (kenkoku kinen no hi), and so the next roundup will appear on Wednesday morning. • SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - Monday's main moves were upwards for Real Estate and Media (Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP)) and downwards (again) for Other Commercial Products (Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP)) and Building Materials (Nichias (5393 JP)). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 10th February ▲7003 8802 2433 ▼6965 9989 6324

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

Japan

SUNDRUG CO., LTD. operates an outlet drug store chain primarily in the Tokyo area.  The Company sells mainly medicines, cosmetics, baby care products, and household utensils.  Sundrug supplies merchandise to franchise stores.  The Company also operates a real estate business.

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Sundrug Co Ltd (9989 JP)

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Drugstores: With Maturity Comes Marriage

The following is an in-depth review of the drugstore sector and the impact of the Cocokara Fine and Matsukiyo merger on other key drugstore stocks,...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 10th February ▲7003 8802 2433 ▼6965 9989 6324

10TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 189 results and 93 revision announcements had little impact on our aggregate Scores, although decliners still outweighed...

Campbell Gunn

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

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