Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.</li>
<li>Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.</li>
<li>Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.</li>
</ul>


If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.
Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.
Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.


Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, the country’s leading drugstore chains, are both looking to expand quickly in Kyushu after only entering the market recently. </li>
<li>This won’t be easy. Kyushu is full of discount retailers led by one of the best discounters, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a>, which is also a leading drugstore chain.</li>
<li>But building a significant market share in the Kyushu market is crucial to competing nationally with these emerging discount leaders.</li>
</ul>



Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), the country’s leading drugstore chains, are both looking to expand quickly in Kyushu after only entering the market recently. 
This won’t be easy. Kyushu is full of discount retailers led by one of the best discounters, Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP), which is also a leading drugstore chain.
But building a significant market share in the Kyushu market is crucial to competing nationally with these emerging discount leaders.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Japan has been a favorite country since late-March, and we have continued to see improvement ever since.</li>
<li>Vermilion’s international Group CS-35 Drug Stores, Japan displays bullish price and RS downtrend reversals, giving us added confidence that outperformance is likely to continue</li>
<li>The two stocks highlighted today display base breakouts over the last couple of days, making them timely buys. Buy: Welcia Holdings (3141-JP) and Sundrug (9989-JP)</li>
</ul>


Japan has been a favorite country since late-March, and we have continued to see improvement ever since.
Vermilion’s international Group CS-35 Drug Stores, Japan displays bullish price and RS downtrend reversals, giving us added confidence that outperformance is likely to continue
The two stocks highlighted today display base breakouts over the last couple of days, making them timely buys. Buy: Welcia Holdings (3141-JP) and Sundrug (9989-JP)


Buying Japanese Drug Store Names: Welcia (3141-JP) And Sundrug (9989-JP)

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

<ul>
<li>The drugstore sector is now 30% larger than it was in 2015, the fastest growth of any retail channel other than e-commerce. </li>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 that growth continued, with only some minor signs of slowing after the boost that many chains enjoyed at the beginning of the pandemic. </li>
<li>Expansion into food means that drugstores are fast becoming competitors to other retailers and, by 2025, the sector could even break ¥10 trillion, matching the size of convenience stores.</li>
</ul>


The drugstore sector is now 30% larger than it was in 2015, the fastest growth of any retail channel other than e-commerce. 
In 2020 and 2021 that growth continued, with only some minor signs of slowing after the boost that many chains enjoyed at the beginning of the pandemic. 
Expansion into food means that drugstores are fast becoming competitors to other retailers and, by 2025, the sector could even break ¥10 trillion, matching the size of convenience stores.


Japanese Drugstores: The Best Retail Bet Japan Has

Japan

SUNDRUG CO., LTD. operates an outlet drug store chain primarily in the Tokyo area.  The Company sells mainly medicines, cosmetics, baby care products, and household utensils.  Sundrug supplies merchandise to franchise stores.  The Company also operates a real estate business.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sundrug Co Ltd (9989 JP)

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

Welcia Challenges Cosmos in Kyushu

Kyushu has become a hotbed of retail competition, especially in discount and drugstores. Aeon is determined to undermine the local champions,...

Michael Causton

Buying Japanese Drug Store Names: Welcia (3141-JP) And Sundrug (9989-JP)

Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225 remains leadership, and Consumer Staples are leading the way within Japan. One timely Group are Drug Stores, with Welcia...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Drugstores: The Best Retail Bet Japan Has

Japan's drugstore sector has been written off by many leading analysts in the past. They were wrong then and are wrong now. The sector has plenty...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

​Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

Welcia Challenges Cosmos in Kyushu

Kyushu has become a hotbed of retail competition, especially in discount and drugstores. Aeon is determined to undermine the local champions,...

Michael Causton

Buying Japanese Drug Store Names: Welcia (3141-JP) And Sundrug (9989-JP)

Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225 remains leadership, and Consumer Staples are leading the way within Japan. One timely Group are Drug Stores, with Welcia...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Drugstores: The Best Retail Bet Japan Has

Japan's drugstore sector has been written off by many leading analysts in the past. They were wrong then and are wrong now. The sector has plenty...

Michael Causton

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...