Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.</li>
<li>Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.</li>
<li>The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?</li>
</ul>


In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.
Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.
The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?


Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there <em>could be</em> some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term</li>
<li>These flows come at a time when prices are down off highs and liquidity is low.</li>
<li>There could be some price impact on certain types of S-REITs near-term.</li>
</ul>


Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term
These flows come at a time when prices are down off highs and liquidity is low.
There could be some price impact on certain types of S-REITs near-term.


Large Potential S-REIT Flows in the Next Two Weeks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a> has crept higher vs the Peer Baskets, especially in the last 4-6 weeks as Other S-REITs have weakened. </li>
<li>This sets the stage for a potentially large flowback into S-REITs as a class coming in a few weeks.</li>
<li>It may be time to reconsider positioning, looking at where MPACT has been and will be.</li>
</ul>



Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) has crept higher vs the Peer Baskets, especially in the last 4-6 weeks as Other S-REITs have weakened. 
This sets the stage for a potentially large flowback into S-REITs as a class coming in a few weeks.
It may be time to reconsider positioning, looking at where MPACT has been and will be.


MCT SP as MPACT Creeping Ever Higher Vs Peers

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sph-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP)</a> "option" has performed admirably so far, up 4.2% in a month, and now it is time to look elsewhere. </li>
<li>SPH REIT has outperformed its Retail S-REIT peers and is now near the top of its undisturbed 3-year range. </li>
<li>And there are potential large flow events on the horizon which would benefit the Peers more than SPH REIT.</li>
</ul>


The SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) "option" has performed admirably so far, up 4.2% in a month, and now it is time to look elsewhere. 
SPH REIT has outperformed its Retail S-REIT peers and is now near the top of its undisturbed 3-year range. 
And there are potential large flow events on the horizon which would benefit the Peers more than SPH REIT.


SPH REIT Option Has 1 Week To Go - Look Elsewhere

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a>’s EGM, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a>/MNACT’s EGM and trust scheme meeting will take place on 23 May. The effective date is 8 August.</li>
<li>The IFA considers the scheme consideration to be fair. We think that IFA’s valuation approach is broadly sound with some areas for improvement. </li>
<li>For a 17 August payment, the gross and annualised spread of the cash-only consideration (including permitted clean-up DPU) is 1.6% and 5.6%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)’s EGM, Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)/MNACT’s EGM and trust scheme meeting will take place on 23 May. The effective date is 8 August.
The IFA considers the scheme consideration to be fair. We think that IFA’s valuation approach is broadly sound with some areas for improvement. 
For a 17 August payment, the gross and annualised spread of the cash-only consideration (including permitted clean-up DPU) is 1.6% and 5.6%, respectively. 


MNACT's Scheme Meeting on 23 May, IFA Opinion

Singapore

Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust is a commercial real estate investment trust. The Trust invests in income-producing real estate that is primarily used for retail and/or office purposes.

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Suntec REIT (SUN SP)

Update on the S-REIT Re-Allocation Trade

The S-REIT Re-Allocation Basket is +5.3%(TR) from close after I wrote (25 July) to yesterday. Not enough excess value has traded. Should it run?...

Travis Lundy

Large Potential S-REIT Flows in the Next Two Weeks

There may be a large inflow into S-REITs next week. It could range from 7-25 days of ADV or more for a large number of higher-yielding REITs and...

Travis Lundy

MCT SP as MPACT Creeping Ever Higher Vs Peers

MCT has outperformed Peers and as Virtual MPACT, has mostly erased its underperformance since deal announcement. This changes the risk balance...

Travis Lundy

SPH REIT Option Has 1 Week To Go - Look Elsewhere

SPH REIT "option" has done well and now it is time to look elsewhere. This could mean a reversion trade, an option trade, or in part an index...

Travis Lundy

MNACT's Scheme Meeting on 23 May, IFA Opinion

The IFA considers the scheme consideration to be fair. For a 17 August payment, the annualised spread of the cash-only consideration (including...

Arun George

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