Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated short interest is USD363m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Sime Darby, Dialog, Gamuda, Mr D I Y Group M Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jun 27th. The aggregated short interest is USD363m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sime Darby, Dialog, Gamuda, Mr D I Y Group M Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): Sime Darby, Dialog, Gamuda, Mr D I Y

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> achieved 75% YoY and 31% QoQ revenue growth in 4QFY24, driven by higher volume and relatively stable selling price, with net loss narrowing down further.</li>
<li>Considering the current demand and supply condition, Top Glove expects the ASP to further increase. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26.</li>
<li>Import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, may help shift the focus from China to Malaysia, as the preferred sourcing destination, thereby helping Top Glove.</li>
</ul>



Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 75% YoY and 31% QoQ revenue growth in 4QFY24, driven by higher volume and relatively stable selling price, with net loss narrowing down further.
Considering the current demand and supply condition, Top Glove expects the ASP to further increase. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26.
Import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, may help shift the focus from China to Malaysia, as the preferred sourcing destination, thereby helping Top Glove.


Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volumes Rise as Demand Revival Cycle On; US to Be the Key Market

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> achieved 16% QoQ revenue growth in 3QFY24, on 13% sequential volume increase and higher ASP. 3QFY24 operational loss reduced to RM34M from RM59M in 2QFY24.</li>
<li>Considering the current demand and supply condition, Top Glove expects the ASP to further increase. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26.</li>
<li>With rising import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, the US demand may shift from China to Malaysia. Top Glove is poised to benefit from potential trade diversion.</li>
</ul>



Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 16% QoQ revenue growth in 3QFY24, on 13% sequential volume increase and higher ASP. 3QFY24 operational loss reduced to RM34M from RM59M in 2QFY24.
Considering the current demand and supply condition, Top Glove expects the ASP to further increase. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26.
With rising import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, the US demand may shift from China to Malaysia. Top Glove is poised to benefit from potential trade diversion.


Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volume and ASP Growth Achieved in 3QFY24; Sees Higher Global Demand Ahead

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supermax-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12883:1" rel="noopener">Supermax Corp (SUCB MK)</a> reported first-ever quarterly loss in Q2FY23 due to continued fall in rubber gloves ASP, rising input cost, and weakening of the USD against the local currency.</li>
<li>The challenging operating environment for glove will persist into 2023. Amid continued weak global demand for gloves, declining ASP, and rising input cost, Supermax will take time to regain profitability.   </li>
<li>Global demand for rubber gloves is not expected to recover soon. In the foreseeable future, the market will remain weak, competition continue to be intense, and profitability adversely impacted.</li>
</ul>



Supermax Corp (SUCB MK) reported first-ever quarterly loss in Q2FY23 due to continued fall in rubber gloves ASP, rising input cost, and weakening of the USD against the local currency.
The challenging operating environment for glove will persist into 2023. Amid continued weak global demand for gloves, declining ASP, and rising input cost, Supermax will take time to regain profitability.   
Global demand for rubber gloves is not expected to recover soon. In the foreseeable future, the market will remain weak, competition continue to be intense, and profitability adversely impacted.


Supermax Corp (SUCB MK): Gloves ASP Decline and Rising Input Costs Lead to Gloomy Business Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">FBMKLCI INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.</li>
</ul>



Ql Resources (QLG MK) and AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) could replace Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) and Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX).
If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the FBMKLCI INDEX.
One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.


KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

Malaysia

Supermax Corporation Berhad is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries manufacture, sell, and export various type of latex gloves around the world.

Price Gauge
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Supermax Corp (SUCB MK)

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 27th): Sime Darby, Dialog, Gamuda, Mr D I Y

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Sime Darby, Dialog, Gamuda, Mr D I Y...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volumes Rise as Demand Revival Cycle On; US to Be the Key Market

Top Glove achieved 75% YoY and 31% QoQ revenue growth in 4QFY24. Riding on higher volume and ASP, the company expects its EBITDA margin to recover...

Tina Banerjee

Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volume and ASP Growth Achieved in 3QFY24; Sees Higher Global Demand Ahead

The U.S. will raise tariffs on Chinese medical and surgical gloves to 50%, from 7.5% currently, in January 2025 and to 100% by January 2026. As a...

Tina Banerjee