Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market continues to show gains on the back of a strong July.  The standout sectors this month include materials and healthcare.</li>
<li>Since the bottom of its bear market, Hong Kong has continued to outperform most Asian markets, even though its valuation remains well below that of others in the region.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharmaceutical-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical (6990 HK)</a> was rated a BUY by several analysts, including UBS and JPM, after 1H26 earnings announcement, benefiting from its partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merck-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1130:1" rel="noopener">Merck &amp; Co (MRK US).</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market continues to show gains on the back of a strong July.  The standout sectors this month include materials and healthcare.
Since the bottom of its bear market, Hong Kong has continued to outperform most Asian markets, even though its valuation remains well below that of others in the region.

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical (6990 HK) was rated a BUY by several analysts, including UBS and JPM, after 1H26 earnings announcement, benefiting from its partnership with Merck &amp; Co (MRK US).



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (August 2026)

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 5.79% in July, outperforming its benchmark by 0.30%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 52% to 74% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio's largest exposures are in the industrial, financial, and technology platform sectors. The portfolio has no exposure to the materials or energy sectors.</li>
<li>The portfolio has generated a Sharpe ratio of 1.20 since inception, compared with 0.69 for the benchmark.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 19.4%.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 5.79% in July, outperforming its benchmark by 0.30%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 52% to 74% since inception.
The portfolio's largest exposures are in the industrial, financial, and technology platform sectors. The portfolio has no exposure to the materials or energy sectors.
The portfolio has generated a Sharpe ratio of 1.20 since inception, compared with 0.69 for the benchmark.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 19.4%.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US must continue to hold for us to maintain our near-term bullish outlook; and as long as this holds, this consolidation appears healthy</li>
<li>Technology has continued to move sideways-to-lower, and we still believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29 will continue to work for the foreseeable future.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US must continue to hold for us to maintain our near-term bullish outlook; and as long as this holds, this consolidation appears healthy
Technology has continued to move sideways-to-lower, and we still believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29 will continue to work for the foreseeable future.


Continue to Avoid A.I. Areas; Korea Slicing Through Supports

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio beat the Hong Kong indexes in June and was flat to its benchmark with a loss of 6.98%.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong market experienced heavy selling in the second half of June, as both foreign and mainland investors reduced their exposure.</li>
<li>At the end of June, we sold positions in the electric utilities, technology, consumer, and property sectors. We added positions in the broker, biotech, telecom, and industrial sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio beat the Hong Kong indexes in June and was flat to its benchmark with a loss of 6.98%.
The Hong Kong market experienced heavy selling in the second half of June, as both foreign and mainland investors reduced their exposure.
At the end of June, we sold positions in the electric utilities, technology, consumer, and property sectors. We added positions in the broker, biotech, telecom, and industrial sectors.


<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57% to 75% since its inception in 10/2024.</li>
<li>The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.37 since its inception, with a mean excess annualized return of 21% and a beta of 1.2.  </li>
<li>At the end of May, we sold our remaining positions in the mining and materials sectors and added positions in the power, consumer and property sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57% to 75% since its inception in 10/2024.
The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.37 since its inception, with a mean excess annualized return of 21% and a beta of 1.2.  
At the end of May, we sold our remaining positions in the mining and materials sectors and added positions in the power, consumer and property sectors.


Hong Kong

Swire Pacific is a diversified global conglomerate with core businesses in property, aviation, beverages, healthcare, and trading & industrial. It holds interests in property development and investment through Swire Properties, airline operations via Cathay Pacific, and is a major Coca-Cola bottler. Swire Pacific Limited was incorporated in 1974 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Swire Pacific (87 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (August 2026)

The Hong Kong market continues to show gains on the back of a strong July. The standout sectors this month include materials and healthcare.

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (July 2026)

We made several adjustments to the portfolio yesterday. We sold the Baidu (9888) position since it hit our stop-loss level. We also sold the...

David Mudd

Continue to Avoid A.I. Areas; Korea Slicing Through Supports

Continue to Avoid A.I. Areas; Korea Slicing Through Supports. Actionable Themes: Services, Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate

Vermilion Research

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (June 2026)

At mid-month, we note that pc makers are passing on higher chip and component costs to consumers. For this reason, we sold our positions in Lenovo...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (May 2026)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 9.7% in May, outperforming its benchmark by 10.57%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 57%...

David Mudd

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