Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The headline numbers at US banks are wholly misleading if the conclusion is a robust US economy, a robust US consumer and that interest rates will continue to rise a lot. Many banks have seen credit card delinquency rates soar in the past several months, to levels higher than anytime in the past 27 years; this is not making headlines, though. One must scour quarterly reports to see the very real distress contained within US consumer credit portfolios, and mostly with respect to credit cards. Or…

The headline numbers at US banks are wholly misleading if the conclusion is a robust US economy, a robust US consumer and that interest rates will continue to rise a lot. Many banks have seen credit card delinquency rates soar in the past several months, to levels higher than anytime in the past 27 years; this is not making headlines, though. One must scour quarterly reports to see the very real distress contained within US consumer credit portfolios, and mostly with respect to credit cards. Or…

US Banks - Deteriorating Consumer Credit Metrics May Point To Recession

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK)</a> announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

Visible signs are increasing of risks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/credit-costs-us-banks" target="_blank">US credit market</a>, and especially in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/discover-financial-services-even-higher-charge-offs" target="_blank">consumer segment</a>. The latest data points are from Santander Consumer USA and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9121" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9121:1">Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC US)</a>. Defaults on their subprime auto loans are rising, as are their bad loans.  Recall that it was Accredited Home Lenders, H&amp;R Block, Indymac and Household International which were the best lead indicators of the credit demise about to overtake the US market, some 12 years ago. With Santander’s comments…

Visible signs are increasing of risks in the US credit market, and especially in the consumer segment. The latest data points are from Santander Consumer USA and Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC US). Defaults on their subprime auto loans are rising, as are their bad loans.  Recall that it was Accredited Home Lenders, H&amp;R Block, Indymac and Household International which were the best lead indicators of the credit demise about to overtake the US market, some 12 years ago. With Santander’s comments…

Discover Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

US credit card and personal lender, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11966" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11966:1">Discover Financial Services (DFS US)</a> is seeing a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-credit-card-lender-reveals-worsening-stress" target="_blank">surge in net-charge offs</a> (NCOs) within its personal lending portfolio. The rise in NCOs is well in place from 4Q15 through 4Q17. Where the rate bounced along 2.00% in each quarter during 2014 and 2015, the figures have since risen steeply. During 4Q17, figures rose to 3.62%, far higher than any quarter in the past three years. While not the largest of portfolios for DFS, the deterioration in personal lending…

US credit card and personal lender, Discover Financial Services (DFS US) is seeing a surge in net-charge offs (NCOs) within its personal lending portfolio. The rise in NCOs is well in place from 4Q15 through 4Q17. Where the rate bounced along 2.00% in each quarter during 2014 and 2015, the figures have since risen steeply. During 4Q17, figures rose to 3.62%, far higher than any quarter in the past three years. While not the largest of portfolios for DFS, the deterioration in personal lending…

Discover Financial Services - Even Higher Charge Offs

United States

Synchrony Financial operates as a consumer financial services company. The Company provides  a range of credit products through programs we have established with a diverse group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and healthcare service providers.

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Synchrony Financial (SYF US)

US Banks - Deteriorating Consumer Credit Metrics May Point To Recession

The headline numbers at US banks are wholly misleading if the conclusion is a robust US economy, a robust US consumer and that interest rates will...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable: Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC - Yet a New Strategy?

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to...

Daniel Tabbush

US Credit Cycle – Revealing Frailties

Visible signs are increasing of risks in the US credit market, and especially in the consumer segment. The latest data points are from Santander...

Daniel Tabbush

Discover Financial Services - Even Higher Charge Offs

US credit card and personal lender, Discover Financial Services (DFS US) is seeing a surge in net-charge offs (NCOs) within its personal lending...

Daniel Tabbush

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