IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11546:1" rel="noopener">Toho Holdings (8129 JP)</a>'s rumoured JPY200bn proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/phc-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34198:1" rel="noopener">PHC Holdings (6523 JP)</a> implies about JPY1,571. Mitsubishi Chemical and Mitsui sold 3.4m shares on-market near that level, signalling little faith.</li>
<li>Their selling weakens the deal's risk/reward: it signals lower deal certainty, and there would be a large overhang of about 20% of the shares if Toho walks away.</li>
<li>My fair value range remains JPY1,800–2,030, but at the last close, JPY1,595, the risk/reward is skewed to the downside.</li>
</ul>



Toho Holdings (8129 JP)'s rumoured JPY200bn proposal for PHC Holdings (6523 JP) implies about JPY1,571. Mitsubishi Chemical and Mitsui sold 3.4m shares on-market near that level, signalling little faith.
Their selling weakens the deal's risk/reward: it signals lower deal certainty, and there would be a large overhang of about 20% of the shares if Toho walks away.
My fair value range remains JPY1,800–2,030, but at the last close, JPY1,595, the risk/reward is skewed to the downside.


PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Corporate Selling Tilts the Risk/Reward to the Downside

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Henlius Biotech entered outlicensing agreement with Eisai for serplulimab for upfront payment of $75M. Wuxi Biologics has signed a license and research service agreement with Vertex Pharmaceuticals. </li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo’s indication expansion application for Datroway in TNBC has been accepted and granted Priority Review in the U.S. PeptiDream has initiated registrational Phase 2 clinical trial of radiotherapeutic candidate.</li>
<li>ABL Bio submitted clinical trial application to the FDA for a Phase 1 clinical trial of ADC candidate ABL209. SK Bioscience is in-licensing a clinical-stage RSV vaccine candidate.</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Henlius Biotech entered outlicensing agreement with Eisai for serplulimab for upfront payment of $75M. Wuxi Biologics has signed a license and research service agreement with Vertex Pharmaceuticals. 
Daiichi Sankyo’s indication expansion application for Datroway in TNBC has been accepted and granted Priority Review in the U.S. PeptiDream has initiated registrational Phase 2 clinical trial of radiotherapeutic candidate.
ABL Bio submitted clinical trial application to the FDA for a Phase 1 clinical trial of ADC candidate ABL209. SK Bioscience is in-licensing a clinical-stage RSV vaccine candidate.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (February 8) – Henlius Bio, Wuxi Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Peptidream, ABL Bio

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11546:1" rel="noopener">Toho Holdings (8129 JP)</a> has made a non-binding proposal to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/phc-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34198:1" rel="noopener">PHC Holdings (6523 JP)</a> private at a rumoured valuation of more than JPY200bn, implying JPY1,571 per share.</li>
<li>KKR and other large holders want an exit, but the rumoured offer is below the last close (JPY1,684) and my fair value range of JPY1,800–2,030.</li>
<li>The deal fits Toho's diversification strategy, but funding, 3D Investment Partners' 24% stake in Toho, and potential competition from domestic funds make completion challenging.</li>
</ul>



Toho Holdings (8129 JP) has made a non-binding proposal to take PHC Holdings (6523 JP) private at a rumoured valuation of more than JPY200bn, implying JPY1,571 per share.
KKR and other large holders want an exit, but the rumoured offer is below the last close (JPY1,684) and my fair value range of JPY1,800–2,030.
The deal fits Toho's diversification strategy, but funding, 3D Investment Partners' 24% stake in Toho, and potential competition from domestic funds make completion challenging.


PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Willing Sellers, but Not at Toho's Rumoured Price

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tension between China and Japan look set to rise further with talks failing to ease frictions.</li>
<li>Travel names remain vulnerable despite Govt. run tour groups having less clout than they used to.</li>
<li>Medtech may do better on defensive bid and Medtronic, but Sysmex continues to slide.</li>
</ul>


Tension between China and Japan look set to rise further with talks failing to ease frictions.
Travel names remain vulnerable despite Govt. run tour groups having less clout than they used to.
Medtech may do better on defensive bid and Medtronic, but Sysmex continues to slide.


Japan Morning Connection: More AI and Tech Pain Ahead of NVDA Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>Numbers from PulteGroup pointing to a nascent bottoming sends builders higher.</li>
<li>Texas Instruments down afterhours will weigh on Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas etc, but this may be short lived.</li>
<li>Can Davinci success in the US be a positive read for Sysmex's Hinotori with the stock on its knees?</li>
</ul>


Numbers from PulteGroup pointing to a nascent bottoming sends builders higher.
Texas Instruments down afterhours will weigh on Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas etc, but this may be short lived.
Can Davinci success in the US be a positive read for Sysmex's Hinotori with the stock on its knees?


Japan Morning Connection: So Far Takaichi as PM Is Turning Out to Be a Sell the Fact Moment

Japan

SYSMEX CORPORATION manufactures reagents and equipment for clinical tests including hematologic (blood) and immune tests. The Company also develops, manufactures, and trades particle analyzers such as blood coagulation analyzer and related software. Manufacturing and sales outside Japan include the United States, EMEA, China and Asia Pacific regions.

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Sysmex (6869 JT)

PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Corporate Selling Tilts the Risk/Reward to the Downside

Mitsui and Mitsubishi Chemical sold near Toho's rumoured JPY1,571, cutting deal certainty and leaving a 20% overhang. Fair value is JPY1,800–2,030,...

Arun George

APAC Healthcare Weekly (February 8) – Henlius Bio, Wuxi Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Peptidream, ABL Bio

Henlius stuck outlicensing deal with Eisai. Wuxi Bio signs deal with Vertex. Daiichi’s Datroway got priority review in U.S. for TNBC. PeptiDream...

Tina Banerjee

PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Willing Sellers, but Not at Toho's Rumoured Price

Toho's rumoured bid of more than JPY200bn (JPY1,571 per share) for PHC is below my estimated fair value of JPY1,800–2,030. Sellers want out, but...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: More AI and Tech Pain Ahead of NVDA Tomorrow

Some big moves down for SPE and AI related. Diplomatic tensions continue between Japan and China. JP Medtech names may get a lift from Medtronic's...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: So Far Takaichi as PM Is Turning Out to Be a Sell the Fact Moment

Power and analog semi's may take a hit after Texas Instruments fell after hours. May be a buy the dip opportunity for Rohm, Fuji Elec and Renesas....

Andrew Jackson

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