Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity</li>
<li>In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323</li>
<li>We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)</li>
</ul>


So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity
In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323
We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

<ul>
<li>In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> and Taiwan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> are directly comparable</li>
<li>WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)</li>
<li>Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view</li>
</ul>


In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe T.S. Lines (TSL HK) and Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) are directly comparable
WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)
Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates</li>
<li>Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026</li>
<li>Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector</li>
</ul>


Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector


Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September </li>
<li>Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026</li>
<li>Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses</li>
</ul>


Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September 
Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management</li>
<li>ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers</li>
<li>We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term</li>
</ul>


Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management
ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers
We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term


Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

China

T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.

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TS Lines (2510 HK)

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Despite the rumors floating around in Israel's financial media, we believe a go-private deal for Israeli deep-sea container carrier ZIM is unlikely...

Tracking Traffic

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