Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 43% YoY, Consensus at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming? </li>
<li>UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 4% YoY . No recovery in legacy semiconductor. </li>
<li>This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).</li>
</ul>


TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 43% YoY, Consensus at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming? 
UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 4% YoY . No recovery in legacy semiconductor. 
This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: A Tale of 2 Worlds

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty</li>
<li>
National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst... AI Still in Its Early Phase</li>
<li>
Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review — Tariff &amp; Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook</li>
</ul>



Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty

National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst... AI Still in Its Early Phase

Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review —  Tariff &amp; Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook


Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan's Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level</li>
<li>UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range

<ul>
<li>Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. </li>
<li>Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share </li>
<li>AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. </li>
</ul>


Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. 
Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share 
AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. 


SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/patrick-liao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:29986" rel="noopener">Patrick Liao</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> held its shareholders meetings on June 3rd, read the insight for the details.</li>
<li>The bottom lines emerging from the meeting are: no fear of tariffs, no fear of appreciation of the NT dollar, no fear of having their tech stolen in foreogn-based factories.</li>
<li>The stock rallied from June 3rd, closing at 998 on Thursday. Our model say the stock is not yet overbought, could rally higher. 
</li>
</ul>


As reported by Patrick Liao ,Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) held its shareholders meetings on June 3rd, read the insight for the details.
The bottom lines emerging from the meeting are: no fear of tariffs, no fear of appreciation of the NT dollar, no fear of having their tech stolen in foreogn-based factories.
The stock rallied from June 3rd, closing at 998 on Thursday. Our model say the stock is not yet overbought, could rally higher. 



TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook: Bullish After Shareholders Meetings

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: A Tale of 2 Worlds

TSMC outperforms revenue guidance while UMC falls short, highlighting AI as the only growing segment in semiconductors.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan's Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

Global chip sales are on the rise, with a strong growth forecast through 2026 despite economic uncertainty. Edge AI and robotics are expected to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook: Bullish After Shareholders Meetings

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) remains unfazed by tariffs, currency appreciation, and tech theft concerns, with stock rallying post-shareholders...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: A Tale of 2 Worlds

​TSMC outperforms revenue guidance while UMC falls short, highlighting AI as the only growing segment in semiconductors.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan's Next Driver; Memory 1Q25

​Global chip sales are on the rise, with a strong growth forecast through 2026 despite economic uncertainty. Edge AI and robotics are expected to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

​Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook: Bullish After Shareholders Meetings

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) remains unfazed by tariffs, currency appreciation, and tech theft concerns, with stock rallying post-shareholders...

Nico Rosti

TSMC outperforms revenue guidance while UMC falls short, highlighting AI as the only growing segment in semiconductors.

Global chip sales are on the rise, with a strong growth forecast through 2026 despite economic uncertainty. Edge AI and robotics are expected to...

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) remains unfazed by tariffs, currency appreciation, and tech theft concerns, with stock rallying post-shareholders...