Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>IDC has revised down 2025 Smartphone unit growth from 2.3% to 0.6%; increased PC from 3.7% to 4.5% but expects a decline in 2026. </li>
<li>The positive for Mediatek is AI in Mobile chips, but it’s a secondary driver compared to AI ASIC design. Mediatek stock is more expensive than TSMC despite lower visibility.</li>
<li>I don’t see any stock for which PC is a positive. The risk remain over-estimating replacement demand ahead of Windows 10 end-of-support in Oct-25.</li>
</ul>


IDC has revised down 2025 Smartphone unit growth from 2.3% to 0.6%; increased PC from 3.7% to 4.5% but expects a decline in 2026. 
The positive for Mediatek is AI in Mobile chips, but it’s a secondary driver compared to AI ASIC design. Mediatek stock is more expensive than TSMC despite lower visibility.
I don’t see any stock for which PC is a positive. The risk remain over-estimating replacement demand ahead of Windows 10 end-of-support in Oct-25.


Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.

<ul>
<li>A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. </li>
<li>It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip's performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. </li>
<li>TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It's already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.</li>
</ul>


A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. 
It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip's performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. 
TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It's already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.


TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand

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Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Rumors That Mediatek's Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple's Chips Used in the iPhone 17</li>
<li>Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract</li>
<li>PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches </li>
</ul>


Rumors That Mediatek's Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple's Chips Used in the iPhone 17
Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract
PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level</li>
<li>UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread</li>
<li>CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

<ul>
<li>Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. </li>
<li>GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. </li>
</ul>


Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google's Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.

IDC revises 2025 Smartphone growth down to 0.6%, PC growth up to 4.5% but expects decline in 2026. Mediatek's AI in Mobile chips is positive, but...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand

The rising cost of semiconductor wafers could impact end-demand which could be limited to AI, networking, and server markets. TSMC's growth will...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google's Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

Google is switching to TSMC for its Pixel chips, TSMC provides updates at technology symposium, GlobalWafers shareholders meeting held with US...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Smartphone 2025 Shipments Revised Down, PC Revised Up (IDC). Mediatek a Tad Expensive, TSMC Cheaper.

​IDC revises 2025 Smartphone growth down to 0.6%, PC growth up to 4.5% but expects decline in 2026. Mediatek's AI in Mobile chips is positive, but...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Wafer Price Increase ~30-40% at Each Node (N2-A16-A14), that Will Eventually Limit Demand

​The rising cost of semiconductor wafers could impact end-demand which could be limited to AI, networking, and server markets. TSMC's growth will...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

​Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google's Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

​Google is switching to TSMC for its Pixel chips, TSMC provides updates at technology symposium, GlobalWafers shareholders meeting held with US...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

IDC revises 2025 Smartphone growth down to 0.6%, PC growth up to 4.5% but expects decline in 2026. Mediatek's AI in Mobile chips is positive, but...

The rising cost of semiconductor wafers could impact end-demand which could be limited to AI, networking, and server markets. TSMC's growth will...

Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Google is switching to TSMC for its Pixel chips, TSMC provides updates at technology symposium, GlobalWafers shareholders meeting held with US...