Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>For 4Q25, revenue guidance is US$32.2–33.4 billion, equivalent to NT$985.3–1,022.0 billion (based on an assumed FX rate of 30.6).</li>
<li>N2 will begin mass production later this quarter with good yields, and volume will ramp in 2026 driven by both smartphone and HPC/AI applications</li>
<li>Smartphone inventory has returned to seasonally healthy levels, with no signs of early pull-ins.</li>
</ul>


For 4Q25, revenue guidance is US$32.2–33.4 billion, equivalent to NT$985.3–1,022.0 billion (based on an assumed FX rate of 30.6).
N2 will begin mass production later this quarter with good yields, and volume will ramp in 2026 driven by both smartphone and HPC/AI applications
Smartphone inventory has returned to seasonally healthy levels, with no signs of early pull-ins.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Operating Margin 50.6%, Guidance 46.5%, Consensus 47.4%.  3Q net income 11% above Consensus. 4Q25 Guidance is ~8% above Consensus.</li>
<li>TSMC increase 2025 revenue growth from ~30% to ~35% in US$, mentioning AI demand outlook. CFO mentions that N2 structural profitability is better than N3 (imo large wafer price increase).</li>
<li>The stock looks expensive at +1 std dev but 1) Consensus looks too low for 2026-27 with 17%, 21% EPS growth YoY. Remember, 2025 Operating Profit increase over 40% YoY. </li>
</ul>


Operating Margin 50.6%, Guidance 46.5%, Consensus 47.4%.  3Q net income 11% above Consensus. 4Q25 Guidance is ~8% above Consensus.
TSMC increase 2025 revenue growth from ~30% to ~35% in US$, mentioning AI demand outlook. CFO mentions that N2 structural profitability is better than N3 (imo large wafer price increase).
The stock looks expensive at +1 std dev but 1) Consensus looks too low for 2026-27 with 17%, 21% EPS growth YoY. Remember, 2025 Operating Profit increase over 40% YoY. 


TSMC 3Q25 Big Beat on Margins, 4Q Guidance Above Consensus, Raising 2025 Guidance

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +27.3% Premium; Opportunity to Set Up ADR Spread Short During Taiwan Session</li>
<li>UMC: +2.0% Premium; Wait for Slightly Higher Premium Before Opening Spread Short</li>
<li>ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Swing Before Going Long or Short</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +27.3% Premium; Opportunity to Set Up ADR Spread Short During Taiwan Session
UMC: +2.0% Premium; Wait for Slightly Higher Premium Before Opening Spread Short
ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Swing Before Going Long or Short


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today

<ul>
<li>Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.</li>
<li>Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.</li>
<li>As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.</li>
</ul>


Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.
Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.
As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.


TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Grip Tightens: 2Q25 Market Share Hits New Heights; September Revenue Implies Even More Taken</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure. </li>
<li>PC Monitor: Dell Doubles Multi-Year Forecasts; AI PC Up-Cycle, Art Thou Finally Here? </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Grip Tightens: 2Q25 Market Share Hits New Heights; September Revenue Implies Even More Taken
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure. 
PC Monitor: Dell Doubles Multi-Year Forecasts; AI PC Up-Cycle, Art Thou Finally Here? 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Market Share Keeps Rising; Semi Revenues Show AI the Only Pillar; AI PCs

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.

Revenue guidance for 4Q25 is US$32.2–33.4 billion, N2 mass production starting soon with strong yields, and smartphone inventory levels are healthy.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 3Q25 Big Beat on Margins, 4Q Guidance Above Consensus, Raising 2025 Guidance

TSMC reports strong 3Q results with net income above consensus, raises 2025 revenue growth guidance to 35% due to AI demand outlook. Stock look...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.

​Revenue guidance for 4Q25 is US$32.2–33.4 billion, N2 mass production starting soon with strong yields, and smartphone inventory levels are healthy.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 3Q25 Big Beat on Margins, 4Q Guidance Above Consensus, Raising 2025 Guidance

​TSMC reports strong 3Q results with net income above consensus, raises 2025 revenue growth guidance to 35% due to AI demand outlook. Stock look...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

​TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Market Share Keeps Rising; Semi Revenues Show AI the Only Pillar; AI PCs

​TSMC dominates market share, while Dell sees promising growth in PC monitor sales. US stocks plummet under selling pressure.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Revenue guidance for 4Q25 is US$32.2–33.4 billion, N2 mass production starting soon with strong yields, and smartphone inventory levels are healthy.

TSMC reports strong 3Q results with net income above consensus, raises 2025 revenue growth guidance to 35% due to AI demand outlook. Stock look...

TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

TSMC dominates market share, while Dell sees promising growth in PC monitor sales. US stocks plummet under selling pressure.