AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's supply constraints aren't manufacturing issues; three independent demand drivers have converged simultaneously, something which the firm seemed to have under-modelled.  </li>
<li>Hyperscalers are abandoning their flexible procurement model to secure multi-year CPU commitments for the first time, indicating structural demand shifts rather than temporary spikes.</li>
<li>Even TSMC-manufactured Intel products are sold out, proving this is demand-driven across both internal and outsourced capacity.</li>
</ul>


Intel's supply constraints aren't manufacturing issues; three independent demand drivers have converged simultaneously, something which the firm seemed to have under-modelled.  
Hyperscalers are abandoning their flexible procurement model to secure multi-year CPU commitments for the first time, indicating structural demand shifts rather than temporary spikes.
Even TSMC-manufactured Intel products are sold out, proving this is demand-driven across both internal and outsourced capacity.


The Structural Forces Behind Intel's Supply Squeeze

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia's forward PE and P/BV peaked in late October and are moderating now. Korea, Taiwan, China rerated the most. But viewed against ROE, Korea looks cheaper than 6 months ago.</li>
<li>Going by PE viewed against forward EPS growth and P/BV against forward ROE, the well-known conclusion - Korea cheap, India expensive - remains unaltered. Onshore China appears slightly overvalued now.</li>
<li>Persistent initiatives to improve corporate governance are boosting Korea's and Taiwan's valuation. Upward revisions in earnings estimates are getting broad-based, indicating the commencement of improving earnings momentum.</li>
</ul>


Asia's forward PE and P/BV peaked in late October and are moderating now. Korea, Taiwan, China rerated the most. But viewed against ROE, Korea looks cheaper than 6 months ago.
Going by PE viewed against forward EPS growth and P/BV against forward ROE, the well-known conclusion - Korea cheap, India expensive - remains unaltered. Onshore China appears slightly overvalued now.
Persistent initiatives to improve corporate governance are boosting Korea's and Taiwan's valuation. Upward revisions in earnings estimates are getting broad-based, indicating the commencement of improving earnings momentum.


Asian Equities: Valuation Leaderboard Reshuffle Driven by Market Reforms and Earnings Boost.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-novosense-microelectron" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36368:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH)</a>, an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing.
According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Suzhou Novosense A/H Trading - Weakest Demand but Highest Concentration

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 5th. The aggregated holding was USD1,364.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD819mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, UMC, Asia Vital Components, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, UMC, Asia Vital Components.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 5th. The aggregated holding was USD1,364.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD819mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, UMC, Asia Vital Components, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, UMC, Asia Vital Components.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 5th): MediaTek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, UMC

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +26.1% Premium; Remains at Level Rarely Maintained for More Than a Week; Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.5% Premium; Historically Rare Level is a Short Opportunity</li>
<li>ASE: +2.9% Premium; Wait Better Short Opportunity at Higher Levels</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +26.1% Premium; Remains at Level Rarely Maintained for More Than a Week; Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: +2.5% Premium; Historically Rare Level is a Short Opportunity
ASE: +2.9% Premium; Wait Better Short Opportunity at Higher Levels


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

The Structural Forces Behind Intel's Supply Squeeze

Intel is facing supply constraints due to three simultaneous demand drivers, including hyperscalers securing multi-year CPU commitments, leading...

Mint Finance

Asian Equities: Valuation Leaderboard Reshuffle Driven by Market Reforms and Earnings Boost.

Asia's valuations are justifiably moderating. Over the past 6 months CN, KR & TW rerated & their EPS & ROE estimates increased too. KR & CN...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Suzhou Novosense A/H Trading - Weakest Demand but Highest Concentration

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 5th): MediaTek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, UMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek (2454 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Structural Forces Behind Intel's Supply Squeeze

​Intel is facing supply constraints due to three simultaneous demand drivers, including hyperscalers securing multi-year CPU commitments, leading...

Mint Finance

Asian Equities: Valuation Leaderboard Reshuffle Driven by Market Reforms and Earnings Boost.

​Asia's valuations are justifiably moderating. Over the past 6 months CN, KR & TW rerated & their EPS & ROE estimates increased too. KR & CN...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Suzhou Novosense A/H Trading - Weakest Demand but Highest Concentration

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, raised around US$285m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 5th): MediaTek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Technology, UMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek (2454 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel is facing supply constraints due to three simultaneous demand drivers, including hyperscalers securing multi-year CPU commitments, leading...

Asia's valuations are justifiably moderating. Over the past 6 months CN, KR & TW rerated & their EPS & ROE estimates increased too. KR & CN...