Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a "democratization of innovation between Technology Development &amp; High Volume Manufacturing</li>
<li>This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it's a seismic shift at a critical juncture </li>
<li>If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what what we see happening. </li>
</ul>


Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a "democratization of innovation between Technology Development &amp; High Volume Manufacturing
This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it's a seismic shift at a critical juncture 
If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what what we see happening. 


<ul>
<li>Typical Intel? 18A node was going to be a great success with customers lining up. CFO now says that revenues from external customers is "not significant", limited to packaging only.</li>
<li>Intel CFO toned expectation of significant external 18A revenues by 2027: some revenues with UMC, Tower, some packaging, some older gen Intel16 “not a ton has to come from 18A”.   </li>
<li>Clear admission that Intel Foundry won't be ready for external clients before 14A in 2028 due to lack of design tools (PDK). All that is good for TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Typical Intel? 18A node was going to be a great success with customers lining up. CFO now says that revenues from external customers is "not significant", limited to packaging only.
Intel CFO toned expectation of significant external 18A revenues by 2027: some revenues with UMC, Tower, some packaging, some older gen Intel16 “not a ton has to come from 18A”.   
Clear admission that Intel Foundry won't be ready for external clients before 14A in 2028 due to lack of design tools (PDK). All that is good for TSMC.


Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We launch the Emmer Capital Asia ex Japan Equity Model Portfolio. We shall measure the absolute and relative performance (vi-a-vis MSCI Asia-ex-Japan Index) of the portfolio and rebalance it monthly.</li>
<li>Our sector and market choices are governed by macro-economic and policy considerations. Asian consumption support, inflation divergence strengthening Asian currencies and market leading domestic exposures are some of the themes.</li>
<li>We are overweight HK/China, India, Korea; underweight Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, communication services and technology, despite the latter's global footprint. We prefer high ROEs and dividend yields.</li>
</ul>


We launch the Emmer Capital Asia ex Japan Equity Model Portfolio. We shall measure the absolute and relative performance (vi-a-vis MSCI Asia-ex-Japan Index) of the portfolio and rebalance it monthly.
Our sector and market choices are governed by macro-economic and policy considerations. Asian consumption support, inflation divergence strengthening Asian currencies and market leading domestic exposures are some of the themes.
We are overweight HK/China, India, Korea; underweight Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, communication services and technology, despite the latter's global footprint. We prefer high ROEs and dividend yields.


Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY</li>
<li>TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high</li>
<li>The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule


Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

If Intel is indeed switching from CE to Copy TSMC, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what...

William Keating

Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.

Intel's 18A node not expected to bring significant external revenues, CFO says limited to packaging only. Foundry won't be ready for external...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio

Emmer Capital's Asia ex JP Equity Model Portfolio is Overwt on HK/CN, India, Korea & underwt Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, comm...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

If Intel is indeed switching from CE to Copy TSMC, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that's not what...

William Keating

Intel 18A: Cracks in the Wall. Good for TSMC.

​Intel's 18A node not expected to bring significant external revenues, CFO says limited to packaging only. Foundry won't be ready for external...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio

Emmer Capital's Asia ex JP Equity Model Portfolio is Overwt on HK/CN, India, Korea & underwt Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, comm...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high...

William Keating

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Intel's 18A node not expected to bring significant external revenues, CFO says limited to packaging only. Foundry won't be ready for external...