Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets</li>
<li>What is different this time around from previous bear markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets
What is different this time around from previous bear markets


Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There is expected to be US$600m to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight</a> ETFs at the same time as the selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The return of Mr. Tan as CEO suggests that spinning off or selling  Intel Foundry will accelerate, Intel’s focus should improve.</li>
<li>It probably also means scaling down considerably Intel manufacturing plans and outsourcing more to TSMC. If you can’t beat them, join them.</li>
<li>Now is not a good time to buy Semiconductor stocks. It will take a couple of years to fix Intel’s problems. TSMC will benefit.</li>
</ul>


The return of Mr. Tan as CEO suggests that spinning off or selling  Intel Foundry will accelerate, Intel’s focus should improve.
It probably also means scaling down considerably Intel manufacturing plans and outsourcing more to TSMC. If you can’t beat them, join them.
Now is not a good time to buy Semiconductor stocks. It will take a couple of years to fix Intel’s problems. TSMC will benefit.


Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Water technology is a critical yet underappreciated pillar of the global industrial economy.</li><li>As water scarcity intensifies and demand continues to rise, industries face mounting risks tied to water access and quality.</li><li>From semiconductors to power generation, water plays an indispensable role in production processes, with ultra-pure water (UPW) systems standing out as essential for high-precision industries.</li></ul>

Water technology is a critical yet underappreciated pillar of the global industrial economy.As water scarcity intensifies and demand continues to rise, industries face mounting risks tied to water access and quality.From semiconductors to power generation, water plays an indispensable role in production processes, with ultra-pure water (UPW) systems standing out as essential for high-precision industries.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?</li>
<li>TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex </li>
<li>MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy </li>
</ul>


TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?
TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex 
MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC

Mr. Tan's return as CEO of Intel signals a likely acceleration in spinning off Intel Foundry and outsourcing more manufacturing to TSMC, impacting...

Nicolas Baratte

Thirsty for Returns

Unearthing value in water technology for a water constrained industrial economy. Water technology is a critical yet underappreciated pillar of the...

Massif Capital Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC

​Mr. Tan's return as CEO of Intel signals a likely acceleration in spinning off Intel Foundry and outsourcing more manufacturing to TSMC, impacting...

Nicolas Baratte

Thirsty for Returns

Unearthing value in water technology for a water constrained industrial economy. Water technology is a critical yet underappreciated pillar of the...

Massif Capital Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

​TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mr. Tan's return as CEO of Intel signals a likely acceleration in spinning off Intel Foundry and outsourcing more manufacturing to TSMC, impacting...

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.