Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and Thailand also remain in expansion territory.</li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type: disc;" aria-level="1">Indonesia reported 5.1% growth—no surprise. It’s the same figure (rounded) they’ve reported nearly every quarter over the past decade, barring COVID. It raises credibility questions.</li><li>Tariff announcements expected this week remain vague, especially concerning China.</li></ul>

Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and Thailand also remain in expansion territory.Indonesia reported 5.1% growth—no surprise. It’s the same figure (rounded) they’ve reported nearly every quarter over the past decade, barring COVID. It raises credibility questions.Tariff announcements expected this week remain vague, especially concerning China.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 8 August 2025

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our analysis of quarterly returns of each Asian market and each of the sectors within them shows clear cyclical patterns of performance, driven, we believe, by market/sector rotation by investors.</li>
<li>These cyclical patterns indicate that in the near-term, investors could rotate out of onshore China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand and rotate into Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.</li>
<li>Korean Technology, Financials and Industrials, Hong Kong Energy, Communications and Technology Services, and Malaysian and Philippines Industrial Services are the secularly outperforming sectors among these likely beneficiary sectors.  </li>
</ul>


Our analysis of quarterly returns of each Asian market and each of the sectors within them shows clear cyclical patterns of performance, driven, we believe, by market/sector rotation by investors.
These cyclical patterns indicate that in the near-term, investors could rotate out of onshore China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand and rotate into Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.
Korean Technology, Financials and Industrials, Hong Kong Energy, Communications and Technology Services, and Malaysian and Philippines Industrial Services are the secularly outperforming sectors among these likely beneficiary sectors.  


Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> reported in-line 2Q25 results, while its 3Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious, particularly in terms of gross margin.</li>
<li>The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.9% in 2Q25, while China and Eurasia comprised the remaining majority.</li>
<li>Our top questions for the upcoming SMIC's 3Q25 earnings conference call.   </li>
</ul>



Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) reported in-line 2Q25 results, while its 3Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious, particularly in terms of gross margin.
The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.9% in 2Q25, while China and Eurasia comprised the remaining majority.
Our top questions for the upcoming SMIC's 3Q25 earnings conference call.   


SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Results in Line; 3Q25 May Offer Mild Upside, but GM Is Expected to Be Flattish.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Tesla &amp; Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.</li>
<li>Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated "Risk Factors" section in their latest 10K.</li>
<li>This isn't Intel playing politics, there's no point. It's LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It's that simple...</li>
</ul>


Tesla &amp; Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.
Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated "Risk Factors" section in their latest 10K.
This isn't Intel playing politics, there's no point. It's LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It's that simple...


Intel. Was Tesla's Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> </li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the only stock clearly overbought. </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.

OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , NIFTY Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX 

OVERBOUGHT: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the only stock clearly overbought. 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 8 August 2025

Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and...

Dr. Jim Walker

Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Results in Line; 3Q25 May Offer Mild Upside, but GM Is Expected to Be Flattish.

SMIC reports in-line 2Q25 results but cautious 3Q25 guidance, with Americas contributing low teens to revenue. Top questions for upcoming earnings...

Patrick Liao

Intel. Was Tesla's Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

This isn't Intel playing politics, there's no point. It's LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a...

William Keating

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

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Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 8 August 2025

Of the 12 regional economies tracked, only 4 are above the 50 PMI boom-bust line: India (59) continues to lead. Vietnam, Philippines, and...

Dr. Jim Walker

Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

​Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Results in Line; 3Q25 May Offer Mild Upside, but GM Is Expected to Be Flattish.

​SMIC reports in-line 2Q25 results but cautious 3Q25 guidance, with Americas contributing low teens to revenue. Top questions for upcoming earnings...

Patrick Liao

Intel. Was Tesla's Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

This isn't Intel playing politics, there's no point. It's LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a...

William Keating

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

​Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

SMIC reports in-line 2Q25 results but cautious 3Q25 guidance, with Americas contributing low teens to revenue. Top questions for upcoming earnings...

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...