Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.</li>
<li>2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. </li>
<li>The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. 
The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.


TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion  (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.</li>
<li>Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.   </li>
<li>AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),</li>
</ul>


Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion  (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.   
AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY</li>
<li>TSMC's Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment</li>
<li>Long-Term Gross Margins -- Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a "New Normal"?</li>
</ul>


TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
TSMC's Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
Long-Term Gross Margins -- Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a "New Normal"?


TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan</li>
<li>TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook &amp; Q125 Look Ahead </li>
<li>Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook &amp; Q125 Look Ahead 
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.</li>
<li>Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4,  NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever</li>
<li>We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.</li>
</ul>


December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.
Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4,  NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever
We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.


TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.

Company beats consensus, expects strong growth in 2025 with AI revenues doubling, stock trading at attractive multiples for projected growth.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.

Company's revenue exceeded guidance at USD$26.88 billion, with AI revenue expected to double by 2025 and mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators in the...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

TSMC results to be released today, with reports that its Arizona production of 4nm chips is matching Taiwan's yield. Will Japan's Rapidus threaten...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead

We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.

William Keating

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TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.

​Company beats consensus, expects strong growth in 2025 with AI revenues doubling, stock trading at attractive multiples for projected growth.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.

​Company's revenue exceeded guidance at USD$26.88 billion, with AI revenue expected to double by 2025 and mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators in the...

Patrick Liao

TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth

​TSMC's strong 4Q24 performance and capex guidance suggest a positive outlook for the industry. We delve into key factors signaling why TSMC's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

​TSMC results to be released today, with reports that its Arizona production of 4nm chips is matching Taiwan's yield. Will Japan's Rapidus threaten...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead

We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.

William Keating

Company beats consensus, expects strong growth in 2025 with AI revenues doubling, stock trading at attractive multiples for projected growth.

Company's revenue exceeded guidance at USD$26.88 billion, with AI revenue expected to double by 2025 and mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators in the...

TSMC's strong 4Q24 performance and capex guidance suggest a positive outlook for the industry. We delve into key factors signaling why TSMC's...

TSMC results to be released today, with reports that its Arizona production of 4nm chips is matching Taiwan's yield. Will Japan's Rapidus threaten...