Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

20 years experience researching capital markets across Asia and the USA.

Managing Director, Zero One

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Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>3Q26 revenue is already reported at NT$1,494.2bn, about US$46.7bn, 2% above the top of the guide; the 15 October release turns on margins, the 4Q guide and 2027.</li>
<li>We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the bigger unknown.</li>
<li>Target price NT$2,920 (15% upside): 26.9x 2026 EPS, reflecting what we see as a permanent re-rating since 2019; TSMC trades at 17.9x 2027 earnings versus 23.0x for big US tech.</li>
</ul>


3Q26 revenue is already reported at NT$1,494.2bn, about US$46.7bn, 2% above the top of the guide; the 15 October release turns on margins, the 4Q guide and 2027.
We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the bigger unknown.
Target price NT$2,920 (15% upside): 26.9x 2026 EPS, reflecting what we see as a permanent re-rating since 2019; TSMC trades at 17.9x 2027 earnings versus 23.0x for big US tech.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC 3Q26 Preview: 2027 Price Increases Should Hold Margins; Further Share Upside from Here