Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.</li>
<li>The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> </li>
<li>In Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is very oversold, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is also oversold. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> start to be overbought.</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.
The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from Amazon.com (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) 
In Asia, BYD (1211 HK) is very oversold, and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is also oversold. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) start to be overbought.


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s</a> 3Q25 outlook, its revenue is expected to decline by approximately 0–6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a relative low seasonal factors and order adjustments.  </li>
<li>Regarding Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL US), the TPU v7e is expected to begin tape-out in September 2025.  </li>
<li>Based on current project developments using TSMC’s 2nm process, MediaTek is highly likely to co-develop the next-generation MTIA v4 ASIC with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


For Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s 3Q25 outlook, its revenue is expected to decline by approximately 0–6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a relative low seasonal factors and order adjustments.  
Regarding Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL US), the TPU v7e is expected to begin tape-out in September 2025.  
Based on current project developments using TSMC’s 2nm process, MediaTek is highly likely to co-develop the next-generation MTIA v4 ASIC with Meta (META US).


MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated short interest was USD26.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial, Chicony Electronics, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated short interest was USD26.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial, Chicony Electronics, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated holding was USD1,128.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,856mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer, Delta Electronics, Fubon Financial, Compal Electronics, Yang Ming Marine, Novatek Microelectronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated holding was USD1,128.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,856mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer, Delta Electronics, Fubon Financial, Compal Electronics, Yang Ming Marine, Novatek Microelectronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.

Mediatek Inc's 3Q25 revenue expected to decline, partnership with Alphabet for TPU v7e tape-out, potential co-development with Meta for next-gen...

Patrick Liao

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Ase...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.

​Mediatek Inc's 3Q25 revenue expected to decline, partnership with Alphabet for TPU v7e tape-out, potential co-development with Meta for next-gen...

Patrick Liao

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 4th): Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision, Fubon Financial, Yuanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): TSMC, Mediatek, Ase Industrial, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Ase...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mediatek Inc's 3Q25 revenue expected to decline, partnership with Alphabet for TPU v7e tape-out, potential co-development with Meta for next-gen...

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...