Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.5% Premium; Decent Level to Short Relative to Historical Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: +0.1% Premium; Middle of the Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises Again</li>
<li>ASE: +3.5% Premium; Near Middle of Recent Range, Wait for Better Levels</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.5% Premium; Decent Level to Short Relative to Historical Trading Range
UMC: +0.1% Premium; Middle of the Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises Again
ASE: +3.5% Premium; Near Middle of Recent Range, Wait for Better Levels


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread At Decent Short Level; UMC Short Interest Rises Again

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>WSTS is revising up Semiconductor demand for 2024 and 2025, AI demand higher than expected. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues are still booming, impressive numbers.</li>
<li>Samsung and SK Hynix expediting new LPDDR “In Memory Processing” for Nvidia in 2026. TSMC forecast AI demand 3x increase to 2026.</li>
<li>Intel 18A low yield and low density brings new light on management reshuffle. TSMC N2 is ~20% ahead. Apple trying its own 5G modem, again.</li>
</ul>


WSTS is revising up Semiconductor demand for 2024 and 2025, AI demand higher than expected. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues are still booming, impressive numbers.
Samsung and SK Hynix expediting new LPDDR “In Memory Processing” for Nvidia in 2026. TSMC forecast AI demand 3x increase to 2026.
Intel 18A low yield and low density brings new light on management reshuffle. TSMC N2 is ~20% ahead. Apple trying its own 5G modem, again.


Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Artificial intelligence granted sovereign status, with autonomous decision-making capabilities, gaining power and authority.</li><li>Fujifilm Taiwan expands by building a new plant in Hsinchu, while ASM grows in proximity to TSMC and suppliers in Taiwan.</li><li>China issues a warning to Biden and Trump with an export ban on gallium and germanium, impacting US industries; Marvell sees strong 3Q24 results boosted by high demand for AI silicon.</li></ul>

Artificial intelligence granted sovereign status, with autonomous decision-making capabilities, gaining power and authority.Fujifilm Taiwan expands by building a new plant in Hsinchu, while ASM grows in proximity to TSMC and suppliers in Taiwan.China issues a warning to Biden and Trump with an export ban on gallium and germanium, impacting US industries; Marvell sees strong 3Q24 results boosted by high demand for AI silicon.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Dec-2024): AI sovereignty.

<ul><li>Arm shifts focus to AI hardware, software, and ecosystem development beyond semiconductors.</li><li>Chinese state CRC acquires JCET, while Intel faces five crises with CEO departure.</li><li>Brightek partners with SiPhIA for automotive opportunities, as Chinese EV makers and European auto layoffs impact global supply chains.</li></ul>

Arm shifts focus to AI hardware, software, and ecosystem development beyond semiconductors.Chinese state CRC acquires JCET, while Intel faces five crises with CEO departure.Brightek partners with SiPhIA for automotive opportunities, as Chinese EV makers and European auto layoffs impact global supply chains.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Dec-2024): Arm targets AI hardware, software, ecosystem.

<ul>
<li>An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.</li>
<li>HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. </li>
<li>140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). </li>
</ul>


An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.
HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. 
140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). 


US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread At Decent Short Level; UMC Short Interest Rises Again

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2

Semi revised up for 2024 and 2025, with AI demand exceeding expectations. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues continue to soar. Samsung, Hynix, TSMC...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Dec-2024): AI sovereignty.

AI granted sovereign power, Fujifilm Taiwan builds in Hsinchu, ASM expands near TSMC, China threatens US industries, Marvell sees strong 3Q24,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Dec-2024): Arm targets AI hardware, software, ecosystem.

Arm expands focus beyond semiconductors to include AI hardware, software, and ecosystem development; Intel faces crises, Brightek joins SiPhIA,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread At Decent Short Level; UMC Short Interest Rises Again

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2

​Semi revised up for 2024 and 2025, with AI demand exceeding expectations. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues continue to soar. Samsung, Hynix, TSMC...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Dec-2024): AI sovereignty.

AI granted sovereign power, Fujifilm Taiwan builds in Hsinchu, ASM expands near TSMC, China threatens US industries, Marvell sees strong 3Q24,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Dec-2024): Arm targets AI hardware, software, ecosystem.

Arm expands focus beyond semiconductors to include AI hardware, software, and ecosystem development; Intel faces crises, Brightek joins SiPhIA,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

​New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi revised up for 2024 and 2025, with AI demand exceeding expectations. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues continue to soar. Samsung, Hynix, TSMC...

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...