Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.</li>
<li>Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.</li>
<li>In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.</li>
</ul>


Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.
Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.
In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) </li>
<li>Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  </li>
<li>Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.</li>
</ul>


Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) 
Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  
Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.


Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is making a historic push into the United States.</li><li>With a combined $165 billion committed to building six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and an R&D center in Arizona, TSMC aims to address strong customer demand from U.S.-based tech giants like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and Broadcom.</li><li>The first fab, using 4nm technology, has entered high-volume production, and construction on the second and third fabs is underway.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is making a historic push into the United States.With a combined $165 billion committed to building six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and an R&D center in Arizona, TSMC aims to address strong customer demand from U.S.-based tech giants like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and Broadcom.The first fab, using 4nm technology, has entered high-volume production, and construction on the second and third fabs is underway.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)’s $165 Billion Gamble: Will Its U.S. Expansion Undermine Its Global Edge?

<ul>
<li>Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. </li>
<li>The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. </li>
<li>That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. </li>
</ul>


Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. 
The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. 
That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. 


US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is planning to scale back its presence in the gallium nitride (GaN) market to focus on high-growth areas.</li>
<li>To meet customer demand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> has recently been reallocating resources away from mature process nodes.</li>
<li>We estimate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navitas-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36294:1" rel="noopener">Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS US)</a> alone consumes over half of TSMC’s GaN capacity each month, making it TSMC’s largest GaN customer.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is planning to scale back its presence in the gallium nitride (GaN) market to focus on high-growth areas.
To meet customer demand, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) has recently been reallocating resources away from mature process nodes.
We estimate that Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS US) alone consumes over half of TSMC’s GaN capacity each month, making it TSMC’s largest GaN customer.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)’s $165 Billion Gamble: Will Its U.S. Expansion Undermine Its Global Edge?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is...

Baptista Research

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

TSMC is shifting focus away from the gallium nitride market to prioritize high-growth areas, reallocating resources to meet customer demand....

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.

​TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Patrick Liao

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

​Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)’s $165 Billion Gamble: Will Its U.S. Expansion Undermine Its Global Edge?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s most advanced chipmaker and a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, is...

Baptista Research

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

​US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

TSMC is shifting focus away from the gallium nitride market to prioritize high-growth areas, reallocating resources to meet customer demand....

Patrick Liao

TSMC poised for 5-10% revenue growth in Q3, on track to meet full-year target with AI boom and increased semi investment tax credits. N3P process...

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...