Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We're now two-thirds through the Taiwan Semiconductor earnings season and about one-third through the Taiwan Hardware earnings season.</li>
<li>Semiconductor gross margins declines have been relatively large, and we believe are tracking to be worse than what consensus expected going into the earnings season.</li>
<li>There have been few examples of inventory situations improving for semicondcutor companies; results data released so far indicates a potentially deeper trough than previously expected.</li>
</ul>


We're now two-thirds through the Taiwan Semiconductor earnings season and about one-third through the Taiwan Hardware earnings season.
Semiconductor gross margins declines have been relatively large, and we believe are tracking to be worse than what consensus expected going into the earnings season.
There have been few examples of inventory situations improving for semicondcutor companies; results data released so far indicates a potentially deeper trough than previously expected.


Taiwan Semiconductors Mid-Earnings Season Review: Margins, Inventories Appear Worse Than Expected

<ul>
<li>Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.</li>
<li>Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)</li>
<li>TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.
Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)
TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

<ul>
<li>TSMC - Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company.</li>
<li>UMC - ADR now trading at a discount. Pretty clear opportunity for a reversion back to a premium.</li>
<li>ChipMOS - At parity, results coming February 23rd. We maintain a model on the company.</li>
</ul>


TSMC - Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company.
UMC - ADR now trading at a discount. Pretty clear opportunity for a reversion back to a premium.
ChipMOS - At parity, results coming February 23rd. We maintain a model on the company.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Holding Despite Buffett Exit, UMC Discount Opens Up

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.</li>
<li>The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.</li>
<li>Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.
The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.


MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>We published last November about buying upside via selling call ratios and also about a vol pair trade idea versus AAPL US.</li>
<li>Buffet has surprisingly exited the bulk of his stake in the chip maker causing concern that the value investor no longer sees value</li>
<li>We update on the position and consider what to do next</li>
</ul>


We published last November about buying upside via selling call ratios and also about a vol pair trade idea versus AAPL US.
Buffet has surprisingly exited the bulk of his stake in the chip maker causing concern that the value investor no longer sees value
We update on the position and consider what to do next


EQD | TSMC (TSM US): Revisiting the Call Ratio and Vol Pair Trade with AAPL US

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Semiconductors Mid-Earnings Season Review: Margins, Inventories Appear Worse Than Expected

Other than comments from some companies saying they expect a 2H23E recovery in their guidance, results data released this season so far indicates a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Holding Despite Buffett Exit, UMC Discount Opens Up

TSMC - Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company. UMC ADR discount represents a decent...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

EQD | TSMC (TSM US): Revisiting the Call Ratio and Vol Pair Trade with AAPL US

We revisit some trade ideas from November 2022 in TSM US following the news that Berkshire Hathaway have sold down the majority of their stake.

Simon Harris

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