Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The development of TSS has been a life's work. We are pleased to acknowledge that our second TSS publication on Smartkarma produced an impressive and rapid result.</li>
<li>On 7 November we determined that the new interim downtrend low below 59.51 had failed and would likely produce a minimum 6-8% correction in 1-2 weeks. </li>
<li>TSM US subsequently produced a 13.4% gain in the following 3 days. Job done! Chart and further details attached.</li>
</ul>


The development of TSS has been a life's work. We are pleased to acknowledge that our second TSS publication on Smartkarma produced an impressive and rapid result.
On 7 November we determined that the new interim downtrend low below 59.51 had failed and would likely produce a minimum 6-8% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
TSM US subsequently produced a 13.4% gain in the following 3 days. Job done! Chart and further details attached.


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC is planning to build a second Arizona fab that could produce its highest-end 3nm chips, according to the WSJ.</li>
<li>TSMC ADR Premium Impact: The TSMC ADR premium is near zero, and increased U.S. investor enthusiasm could lead to a significant bounce for the premium.</li>
<li>INTC vs. TSMC Impact: News flow could favor TSMC over Intel over the next few days, at least until a November 14th conference Intel will be attending.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is planning to build a second Arizona fab that could produce its highest-end 3nm chips, according to the WSJ.
TSMC ADR Premium Impact: The TSMC ADR premium is near zero, and increased U.S. investor enthusiasm could lead to a significant bounce for the premium.
INTC vs. TSMC Impact: News flow could favor TSMC over Intel over the next few days, at least until a November 14th conference Intel will be attending.


Intel Vs. TSMC & ADR Monitor: TSMC to Build New High-End Fab In Arizona, Premium Bounce Potential

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)</a>  announced today that it will invest up to US$170m into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lordstown-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33123:1" rel="noopener">Lordstown Motors Corp (RIDE US).</a>
</li>
<li>The deal represents favorable terms for Hon Hai in our view, given the conversion price of preferred shares involved in the deal and the after-market price for Lordstown shares.</li>
<li>Germany is expected to block a chip facility acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navtech-inc-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25361:1" rel="noopener">Navtech Inc/China (300456 CH)</a>; Alibaba and Biren are slowing chip speeds due to U.S. curbs; Lithuan-Taiwan chip partnership.</li>
</ul>



Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)  announced today that it will invest up to US$170m into Lordstown Motors Corp (RIDE US).

The deal represents favorable terms for Hon Hai in our view, given the conversion price of preferred shares involved in the deal and the after-market price for Lordstown shares.
Germany is expected to block a chip facility acquisition by Navtech Inc/China (300456 CH); Alibaba and Biren are slowing chip speeds due to U.S. curbs; Lithuan-Taiwan chip partnership.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai U.S. Listco EV Deal, Germany Likely to Block China Co's Factory Purchase

<ul>
<li>TSM US has declined 35% since mid-August 2022 and 59% from its January 2022 peak. </li>
<li>A new 2022 low of 59.43 was produced on Thursday 3 November amid extreme bullish ST momentum failure.</li>
<li>Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-8% upside in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


TSM US has declined 35% since mid-August 2022 and 59% from its January 2022 peak. 
A new 2022 low of 59.43 was produced on Thursday 3 November amid extreme bullish ST momentum failure.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-8% upside in the coming 1-2 weeks.


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-8% Upswing

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%)

Our proprietary Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) methodolody is proven to identify high probability reversals in exhausted interim trends.

David Coloretti, CMT

Intel Vs. TSMC & ADR Monitor: TSMC to Build New High-End Fab In Arizona, Premium Bounce Potential

TSMC ADR Premium Impact: The TSMC ADR premium is near zero, and increased U.S. investor enthusiasm could lead to a significant bounce for the premium.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai U.S. Listco EV Deal, Germany Likely to Block China Co's Factory Purchase

Hon Hai-Lordstown deal represents favorable terms for Hon Hai in our view, given the conversion price of preferred shares involved in the deal.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-8% Upswing

Our proprietary TSS methodology aims to identify extreme short-term momentum failures in established interim trends that justify tangible tactical...

David Coloretti, CMT

Screening for GEMs: November 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

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