Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. </p><p><strong><em>Companies mentioned this week:</em></strong></p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huawei-technologies-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8231:1" rel="noopener">Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1439927D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooredoo-q-s-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24199:1" rel="noopener">Ooredoo Q.S.C (ORDS QD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a></p>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Tencent (700 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Huawei Technology (40978Z CH), ByteDance (1439927D CH), Baidu (9888 HK), Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), TSMC (2330 TT), Kakao Corp (035720 KS), Kakao Pay (377300 KS), Ooredoo Q.S.C (ORDS QD), CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 17 September 2021

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<div>
<p>In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn.  Highlights:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>The big four of China &amp; HK, Taiwan, South Korea and India dominate holdings in Asia Ex-Japan.  The 4 countries combined account for 85.4% of total allocations, though all but India are held underweight versus the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index.</li>
<li>China &amp; HK's weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a 4-year low of 42.96% having fallen heavily from the high of 52% back in August 2020.</li>
<li>Allocations in Indian stocks hit a new all-time high last month of 13.54%.  India has been the go-to overweight holding since the election of Narendra Modi in 2014, though managers are much more closely aligned to benchmark today.</li>
<li>
<p>Indonesian allocations are close to their lowest levels on record.  Only 82.8% of the Asia Ex-Japan managers in our analysis have exposure to Indonesia,  with Comgest, Barings and Vontobel closing exposure over the last 6-months.</p>
</li>
<li>Information Technology dominates the holdings picture, being both the largest sector holding and the largest sector overweight by some distance.  Opposing this are net underweights in Health Care (-1.61%), Materials (-1.25%) and Financials (-1.17%). </li>
<li>The key antagonist in China's tech crackdown, Consumer Discretionary weights have fallen from a high of 21.35% in October 2020 to 16.84% today.  In tandem, active managers have moved from an overweight of 2.18% to an underweight of -0.12%.  Confidence has certainly taken a knock.</li>
</ul>
<p>Also analyzed in more detail:  Thailand, Health Care, Indian Financials, South Korean Consumer Staples, China Financials, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US).</a></p>
<p><em>Analysis taken from our Asia Ex-Japan research, covering 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn. </em></p>
</div>


In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn.  Highlights:



The big four of China &amp; HK, Taiwan, South Korea and India dominate holdings in Asia Ex-Japan.  The 4 countries combined account for 85.4% of total allocations, though all but India are held underweight versus the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index.
China &amp; HK's weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a 4-year low of 42.96% having fallen heavily from the high of 52% back in August 2020.
Allocations in Indian stocks hit a new all-time high last month of 13.54%.  India has been the go-to overweight holding since the election of Narendra Modi in 2014, though managers are much more closely aligned to benchmark today.

Indonesian allocations are close to their lowest levels on record.  Only 82.8% of the Asia Ex-Japan managers in our analysis have exposure to Indonesia,  with Comgest, Barings and Vontobel closing exposure over the last 6-months.

Information Technology dominates the holdings picture, being both the largest sector holding and the largest sector overweight by some distance.  Opposing this are net underweights in Health Care (-1.61%), Materials (-1.25%) and Financials (-1.17%). 
The key antagonist in China's tech crackdown, Consumer Discretionary weights have fallen from a high of 21.35% in October 2020 to 16.84% today.  In tandem, active managers have moved from an overweight of 2.18% to an underweight of -0.12%.  Confidence has certainly taken a knock.

Also analyzed in more detail:  Thailand, Health Care, Indian Financials, South Korean Consumer Staples, China Financials, Baidu (BIDU US) , Sea Ltd (SE US) , Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US).
Analysis taken from our Asia Ex-Japan research, covering 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn. 


Asia Ex-Japan Positioning:  India & Tech at Record Highs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongyue-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20429:1" rel="noopener">Dongyue Group (189 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials, Information Technology and Health Care sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17841:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Corp (7951 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasalle-logiport-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22658:1" rel="noopener">Lasalle Logiport REIT (3466 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in most sectors led by the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate, Information Technology and Materials stocks.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a>   while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8656:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>.</p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fubon-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11869:1" rel="noopener">Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>     while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catcher-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4957:1" rel="noopener">Catcher Technology (2474 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/focaltech-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11240:1" rel="noopener">Focaltech Systems (3545 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chailease-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6579:1" rel="noopener">Chailease Holding (5871 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan (3690 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), Dongyue Group (189 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials, Information Technology and Health Care sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP) while there was short covering on Money Forward (3994 JP), ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), SBI Holdings (8473 JP), Yamaha Corp (7951 JP) and Lasalle Logiport REIT (3466 JP). Shorts increased in most sectors led by the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate, Information Technology and Materials stocks.In Korea, shorts increased on Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), LG Electronics (066570 KS) and Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)   while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), KT Corp (030200 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS).In Taiwan, shorts increased on Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)     while shorts covered on United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Catcher Technology (2474 TT), Focaltech Systems (3545 TT), Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) and Chailease Holding (5871 TT).

Asia Shorts: Meituan, CMB, Li Ning, Sekisui, Toyo Seikan, Toshiba, Kakao, HMM, LGE, Wan Hai, TSMC

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<p>July semiconductor revenues, just reported by the SIA, reached a record high.  Today's market bears a strong resemblance to the high-growth days of 2017-18, and an end will come when the market falls back to normal growth.  This presents opportunities for growth in the near term and shorts in the longer term.</p>

July semiconductor revenues, just reported by the SIA, reached a record high.  Today's market bears a strong resemblance to the high-growth days of 2017-18, and an end will come when the market falls back to normal growth.  This presents opportunities for growth in the near term and shorts in the longer term.

Semiconductors Continue Surprise Strength

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 17 September 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Asia Ex-Japan Positioning: India & Tech at Record Highs

In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn.

Steven Holden

Asia Shorts: Meituan, CMB, Li Ning, Sekisui, Toyo Seikan, Toshiba, Kakao, HMM, LGE, Wan Hai, TSMC

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Semiconductors Continue Surprise Strength

Semiconductor revenues in July were 29% higher than the prior year and the market set a new record. Will this continue? Yes, for a while, but...

Jim Handy

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

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