Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Imagine a world where an airplane can detect a fault in one of its engines in mid-flight and radio ahead to order spare parts without any pilot intervention. Or where your fridge can detect you are running out of milk and order it for you while you are asleep. Or where your home thermostat automatically lowers the temperature when you leave the house and raises it the moment you return. Or where a patient can be forewarned of an imminent heart attack by his smartphone without any kind of medical examination by a doctor.The “Internet of Things” (IoT) refers to a world where aircraft engines, fridges, thermostats and medical devices are connected to the internet with a view to automating more of our lives, saving energy or making industrial processes run more efficiently.We are very early in this technology cycle. As yet, there are no common standards, so it is difficult to predict winners and losers. However, investors need to understand the Internet of Things because it will soon morph into a mega theme. Our analysis offers a framework in which to look at the Internet of Things, summarises the important trends and identifies the key players.

Imagine a world where an airplane can detect a fault in one of its engines in mid-flight and radio ahead to order spare parts without any pilot intervention. Or where your fridge can detect you are running out of milk and order it for you while you are asleep. Or where your home thermostat automatically lowers the temperature when you leave the house and raises it the moment you return. Or where a patient can be forewarned of an imminent heart attack by his smartphone without any kind of medical examination by a doctor.The “Internet of Things” (IoT) refers to a world where aircraft engines, fridges, thermostats and medical devices are connected to the internet with a view to automating more of our lives, saving energy or making industrial processes run more efficiently.We are very early in this technology cycle. As yet, there are no common standards, so it is difficult to predict winners and losers. However, investors need to understand the Internet of Things because it will soon morph into a mega theme. Our analysis offers a framework in which to look at the Internet of Things, summarises the important trends and identifies the key players.

Internet of Things as an Investment Theme

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and Turkey appear to have entered a vicious circle whereby lower growth leads to currency devaluation leading to policies, which are negative for both equity investors and economies and so the whole process starts up again (we still believe that of the four Turkey has the best prospects of escaping from this vortex).Most disturbingly, we believe that China as well as Indonesia may be on the verge of joining this not very select group.While sentiment towards EM has the hallmark of a short term bottom with plenty of space for bear market rallies and short squeezes, there is little sign of the positive inflection in policies, which might mark a secular turning point in individual markets or in the broader asset class.

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and Turkey appear to have entered a vicious circle whereby lower growth leads to currency devaluation leading to policies, which are negative for both equity investors and economies and so the whole process starts up again (we still believe that of the four Turkey has the best prospects of escaping from this vortex).Most disturbingly, we believe that China as well as Indonesia may be on the verge of joining this not very select group.While sentiment towards EM has the hallmark of a short term bottom with plenty of space for bear market rallies and short squeezes, there is little sign of the positive inflection in policies, which might mark a secular turning point in individual markets or in the broader asset class.

Many (un)happy returns in EM; governance and the vicious circle

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9%, beating the consensus estimate of 3.7% growth.It was what economists like to call a high-quality revision as the contribution from inventory expansion was now just 0.2% instead of 0.4%, meaning fewer goods were piling up on shelves.More than offsetting the downward inventory calculation was a large revision to consumer spending, primarily the services-related category.Consumer spending grew at a 3.6% rate in the second quarter, one of the best performances of this recovery and constituting almost two thirds of total GDP growth.Most of the construction-related categories were also revised higher.Analysts: Robert Johnson CFA &amp; Roland CzerniawskiFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

Growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9%, beating the consensus estimate of 3.7% growth.It was what economists like to call a high-quality revision as the contribution from inventory expansion was now just 0.2% instead of 0.4%, meaning fewer goods were piling up on shelves.More than offsetting the downward inventory calculation was a large revision to consumer spending, primarily the services-related category.Consumer spending grew at a 3.6% rate in the second quarter, one of the best performances of this recovery and constituting almost two thirds of total GDP growth.Most of the construction-related categories were also revised higher.Analysts: Robert Johnson CFA &amp; Roland CzerniawskiFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

U.S. Economy Picks up the Pace: We're bumping up our 2015 GDP forecast

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Formosa Sumco Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The company recently announced poor earnings down 56% YoY in 1Q24</li>
<li>Dwindling cash is another major concern especially with higher debt/ebitda</li>
<li>At 15-25% ROE is sensible but now back toward 5% there is less enthusiasm </li>
</ul>


The company recently announced poor earnings down 56% YoY in 1Q24
Dwindling cash is another major concern especially with higher debt/ebitda
At 15-25% ROE is sensible but now back toward 5% there is less enthusiasm 


Formosa Sumco Technology - Earnings, Returns, Financial Position, Worsening Dramatically

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Internet of Things as an Investment Theme

Imagine a world where an airplane can detect a fault in one of its engines in mid-flight and radio ahead to order spare parts without any pilot...

CM Research

Many (un)happy returns in EM; governance and the vicious circle

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and...

John-Paul Smith

U.S. Economy Picks up the Pace: We're bumping up our 2015 GDP forecast

Growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9%, beating the consensus estimate of 3.7% growth.It was what economists like to call a...

Morningstar, Inc.

Formosa Sumco Technology - Earnings, Returns, Financial Position, Worsening Dramatically

Company is seeing far lower net profit, with the just-announced quarter one of the worst on record in recent years. Debt is now a factor and SG&A...

Daniel Tabbush

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