Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are the recent announcements blocking Chinese investment a sea change in US/China relations?</li>
<li>Are we wrong about Trump’s willingness to do a deal with China?</li>
<li>Is it wrong to maintain a bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks?</li>
</ul>


Are the recent announcements blocking Chinese investment a sea change in US/China relations?
Are we wrong about Trump’s willingness to do a deal with China?
Is it wrong to maintain a bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks?


Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We engaged with the company recently -- SIMO remains in a strong position to capitalize on global increased need for high-end NAND memory controllers across mobiles, PCs, and enterprise AI.</li>
<li>SIMO’s strong positioning in the Client SSD market and its technology leadership in PCIe 5 SSD and MonTitan solutions provide significant growth opportunities into 2025E and beyond.</li>
<li>Reiterate Structural Long. Given the company's net cash balance sheet, depressed market price, and multi-year growth outlook, in our view a share buyback program would be accretive to shareholder value.</li>
</ul>


We engaged with the company recently -- SIMO remains in a strong position to capitalize on global increased need for high-end NAND memory controllers across mobiles, PCs, and enterprise AI.
SIMO’s strong positioning in the Client SSD market and its technology leadership in PCIe 5 SSD and MonTitan solutions provide significant growth opportunities into 2025E and beyond.
Reiterate Structural Long. Given the company's net cash balance sheet, depressed market price, and multi-year growth outlook, in our view a share buyback program would be accretive to shareholder value.


Silicon Motion: NAND Controller Leader; Positioned for a Transformative 2025E; Structural Long

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"</li>
<li>Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand</li>
<li>TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay</li>
</ul>


Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"
Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand
TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC Secures Key Qualcomm Advanced Packaging Order; Breakthrough in High-Growth Chip Supply Chain Segment</li>
<li>Why TSMC Remains Critical for QCOM Manufacturing, Yet UMC Provides a Strong Strategic Counterbalance</li>
<li>UMC Must Prove Itself, but QCOM Win Sparks Optimism for Sentiment and Outlook Recovery -- Maintain TSMC as Structural Long &amp; Rate UMC as Outperform</li>
</ul>


UMC Secures Key Qualcomm Advanced Packaging Order; Breakthrough in High-Growth Chip Supply Chain Segment
Why TSMC Remains Critical for QCOM Manufacturing, Yet UMC Provides a Strong Strategic Counterbalance
UMC Must Prove Itself, but QCOM Win Sparks Optimism for Sentiment and Outlook Recovery -- Maintain TSMC as Structural Long &amp; Rate UMC as Outperform


United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  </li>
<li>Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. </li>
<li>Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. </li>
</ul>


Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  
Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. 
Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. 


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

Rikki Malik

Silicon Motion: NAND Controller Leader; Positioned for a Transformative 2025E; Structural Long

SIMO is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-end NAND memory controllers. We believe a share buyback program could enhance...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC

UMC secures key Qualcomm order, providing strategic counterbalance to TSMC in chip supply chain segment. Optimism likely to improve for UMC's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

​Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

Rikki Malik

Silicon Motion: NAND Controller Leader; Positioned for a Transformative 2025E; Structural Long

​SIMO is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-end NAND memory controllers. We believe a share buyback program could enhance...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

​Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC

​UMC secures key Qualcomm order, providing strategic counterbalance to TSMC in chip supply chain segment. Optimism likely to improve for UMC's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

SIMO is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-end NAND memory controllers. We believe a share buyback program could enhance...

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

UMC secures key Qualcomm order, providing strategic counterbalance to TSMC in chip supply chain segment. Optimism likely to improve for UMC's...