Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: Premium Soars to +15.2%, Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: Spread Bounces from Lows to Relatively Extreme High of +1.9%; Good Level to Short</li>
<li>ASE: Spread Soars to Near All-Time High of +15.5%; Consider Shorting the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: Premium Soars to +15.2%, Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread
UMC: Spread Bounces from Lows to Relatively Extreme High of +1.9%; Good Level to Short
ASE: Spread Soars to Near All-Time High of +15.5%; Consider Shorting the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Spreads Surge to Extremes; CHT Shorts Massing Pre-Earnings

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.</li><li>TSM revenue is above guidance, gross margins are a bit ahead of the midpoint, and operating margins are at the high end of guidance.</li><li>First, while this is a good result, semiconductors are due for a correction. I wrote about this in March, and SOXX has quietly crept downwards since then.</li></ul>

It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.TSM revenue is above guidance, gross margins are a bit ahead of the midpoint, and operating margins are at the high end of guidance.First, while this is a good result, semiconductors are due for a correction. I wrote about this in March, and SOXX has quietly crept downwards since then.

TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.</li>
<li>TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.</li>
<li>For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook</li>
<li>Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi &amp; foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.</li>
<li>SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD &amp; Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook
Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi &amp; foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.
SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD &amp; Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!


TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Spreads Surge to Extremes; CHT Shorts Massing Pre-Earnings

ADR spreads have surged to historically extreme levels for TSMC, ASE, and UMC. For CHT, we note a surge in short interest for its Taiwan shares...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings

It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

If you dig into the details, TSMC provided substantial insight into the company's internal estimates for long-term revenue. For ASML, we discuss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

TSMC beat & raised guidance, maintained FY outlook. Minor, unnecessary tinkering with semi and foundry forecasts plus confusion about the root...

William Keating

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