Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>This Insight presents intraday data to illustrate regional volatility moves over the past one and a half trading days. </li>
<li>Sunday’s US tariff announcement led to a global decline in equities and a spike in volatility on Monday. Asian indices began to recover today with a slight decrease in volatility.</li>
<li>Market reaction to Sunday's announcement was short-lived, so far, and the impact on implied volatility muted. The risk of a renewed volatility spike to or above Monday's intraday high's remains.</li>
</ul>


This Insight presents intraday data to illustrate regional volatility moves over the past one and a half trading days. 
Sunday’s US tariff announcement led to a global decline in equities and a spike in volatility on Monday. Asian indices began to recover today with a slight decrease in volatility.
Market reaction to Sunday's announcement was short-lived, so far, and the impact on implied volatility muted. The risk of a renewed volatility spike to or above Monday's intraday high's remains.


EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Global option markets present a diverse picture, offering a broad opportunity set.</li>
<li>Several markets make for good hedging-candidates after a strong January and amid cheap options.</li>
<li>Although several Indian indices show high implied volatility, contextual analysis indicates volatility may be fairly priced relative to their bear trends.</li>
</ul>


Global option markets present a diverse picture, offering a broad opportunity set.
Several markets make for good hedging-candidates after a strong January and amid cheap options.
Although several Indian indices show high implied volatility, contextual analysis indicates volatility may be fairly priced relative to their bear trends.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Option Opportunities Across the Regions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. / Event-Driven

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

<ul>
<li>There are 8 adds and 7 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December. We had a 100% hit rate on our forecasts.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 22.1% resulting in a one-way trade of TWD 78.8bn (US$2.4bn). There are 16 stocks with over 5 days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There has been a big increase in short interest on some of the deletions and there could be some short covering the stocks closer to implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 adds and 7 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December. We had a 100% hit rate on our forecasts.
Estimated one-way turnover is 22.1% resulting in a one-way trade of TWD 78.8bn (US$2.4bn). There are 16 stocks with over 5 days of ADV to trade.
There has been a big increase in short interest on some of the deletions and there could be some short covering the stocks closer to implementation date.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: 15 Changes, 44% Turnover, US$4.8bn Trade, BIG Impact

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Observing implied volatility across 16 markets plus gold provides a picture of falling implied volatility, despite dispersion in market performance.</li>
<li>Several, but not all, markets display moderation from unusual volatility levels to a more balanced implied volatility structure.</li>
<li>The realignment of implied volatility across markets presents potential relative value opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Observing implied volatility across 16 markets plus gold provides a picture of falling implied volatility, despite dispersion in market performance.
Several, but not all, markets display moderation from unusual volatility levels to a more balanced implied volatility structure.
The realignment of implied volatility across markets presents potential relative value opportunities.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Taiwan

The TWSE, or TAIEX, Index is capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The index has a base value of 100 based on its 1966 level. The index is also known as the TSEC Index.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility

The Tariff Tantrum triggered a universal equity decline and spike in volatility. Intra-day data shows that market reaction was short-lived, but...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Option Opportunities Across the Regions

Global option markets offer a wide range of opportunities for hedging, while some indices show high implied volatility but potentially fair...

Gaudenz Schneider

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: 15 Changes, 44% Turnover, US$4.8bn Trade, BIG Impact

There are 8 adds/7 deletes for the Yuanta Taiwan Divi+ ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.1% and one-way trade is TWD 78.8bn (US$2.4bn). There...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets

Despite varying market performances, implied volatility is generally decreasing across 16 equity markets and gold. The realignment might offer...

Gaudenz Schneider

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility

The Tariff Tantrum ​triggered a universal equity decline and spike in volatility. Intra-day data shows that market reaction was short-lived, but...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Option Opportunities Across the Regions

​Global option markets offer a wide range of opportunities for hedging, while some indices show high implied volatility but potentially fair...

Gaudenz Schneider

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: 15 Changes, 44% Turnover, US$4.8bn Trade, BIG Impact

There are 8 adds/7 deletes for the Yuanta Taiwan Divi+ ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.1% and one-way trade is TWD 78.8bn (US$2.4bn). There...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets

​Despite varying market performances, implied volatility is generally decreasing across 16 equity markets and gold. The realignment might offer...

Gaudenz Schneider

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

The Tariff Tantrum triggered a universal equity decline and spike in volatility. Intra-day data shows that market reaction was short-lived, but...

Global option markets offer a wide range of opportunities for hedging, while some indices show high implied volatility but potentially fair...

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: 15 Changes, 44% Turnover, US$4.8bn Trade, BIG Impact

Despite varying market performances, implied volatility is generally decreasing across 16 equity markets and gold. The realignment might offer...