Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Asia top shorts are Taiwan and Korea followed by HSI and the Nikkei. All are rolling over under key trendline barriers. Need to break near support pivots for downside traction.</li>
<li>SPX 4,470 is the key support to break below to add to selling pressure in Asia that would crack pivot supports.</li>
<li>Early April call for increased volatility with a weaker April in store, assuming we see downside follow through below noted pivot supports.</li>
</ul>


Asia top shorts are Taiwan and Korea followed by HSI and the Nikkei. All are rolling over under key trendline barriers. Need to break near support pivots for downside traction.
SPX 4,470 is the key support to break below to add to selling pressure in Asia that would crack pivot supports.
Early April call for increased volatility with a weaker April in store, assuming we see downside follow through below noted pivot supports.


<ul>
<li>USD/TWD represents the ultimate laggard USD long play in Asia given outflows from Taiwanese equities and a bullish technical backdrop/breakout.</li>
<li>USD/TWD 28.60 is the level to clear for bull traction to the 29.00 barrier with 29.50 targeted once through a rather difficult 29.00 level.</li>
<li>TAIEX trendline resistance is the ideal short level into any bounce with 16,200-000 the support target.</li>
</ul>


USD/TWD represents the ultimate laggard USD long play in Asia given outflows from Taiwanese equities and a bullish technical backdrop/breakout.
USD/TWD 28.60 is the level to clear for bull traction to the 29.00 barrier with 29.50 targeted once through a rather difficult 29.00 level.
TAIEX trendline resistance is the ideal short level into any bounce with 16,200-000 the support target.


USD/TWD Top Laggard Play with Taiwan Equities at Risk

Monday's turn call to sell down longs and put on additional shorts panned out. Now we are positioning for a mild bounce into the month/quarter end to lean on shorts. October still expected to see another leg down. Bigger cycle date comes in near October 7-8th.Top shorts in Asia are Korea (due to undershoot on the back of SEC) and HSI (nearing a low) and Taiwan as the recent addition to our short conviction group.A50 flirting with big breakout resistance at 15,500 and will drive H share direction. A shares show potential to buck the region negative trend if the A50 clears 15,500 pivot.

Monday's turn call to sell down longs and put on additional shorts panned out. Now we are positioning for a mild bounce into the month/quarter end to lean on shorts. October still expected to see another leg down. Bigger cycle date comes in near October 7-8th.Top shorts in Asia are Korea (due to undershoot on the back of SEC) and HSI (nearing a low) and Taiwan as the recent addition to our short conviction group.A50 flirting with big breakout resistance at 15,500 and will drive H share direction. A shares show potential to buck the region negative trend if the A50 clears 15,500 pivot.

SPX Trendline Rejection/Asia Short Targets

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Our Asia short group kissed fresh sell levels (add back to early August entries) with fresh lows in store for September that will set up buy levels for Japan and Hong Kong.Bank of Korea's rate hike may set of a fresh round of market concerns as we head into the Jackson hole Fed meeting as the growth/inflation tightrope gathers more attention. Today is a key cycle turn date that adds to market energy.Japan's short shows the highest risk of seeing an early bottom near 27k and the level to break to reach for the 26,000 ideal turn zone where we see an opportunity to reverse to long. Hong Kong is next in line to bottom in September.

Our Asia short group kissed fresh sell levels (add back to early August entries) with fresh lows in store for September that will set up buy levels for Japan and Hong Kong.Bank of Korea's rate hike may set of a fresh round of market concerns as we head into the Jackson hole Fed meeting as the growth/inflation tightrope gathers more attention. Today is a key cycle turn date that adds to market energy.Japan's short shows the highest risk of seeing an early bottom near 27k and the level to break to reach for the 26,000 ideal turn zone where we see an opportunity to reverse to long. Hong Kong is next in line to bottom in September.

Asia Short Cluster Digging for September Lows

Taiwan

The TWSE, or TAIEX, Index is capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The index has a base value of 100 based on its 1966 level. The index is also known as the TSEC Index.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Asia High Conviction Shorts

Asia top shorts are Taiwan and Korea followed by HSI and the Nikkei. All are rolling over under key trendline barriers. Need to break near support...

Thomas Schroeder

USD/TWD Top Laggard Play with Taiwan Equities at Risk

USD/TWD represents the ultimate laggard USD long play in Asia given outflows from Taiwanese equities and a bullish technical backdrop/breakout.

Thomas Schroeder

SPX Trendline Rejection/Asia Short Targets

Monday's turn call to sell down longs and put on additional shorts panned out. Use a month/quarter end bounce to lean on shorts. October to see...

Thomas Schroeder

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Asia Short Cluster Digging for September Lows

Our Asia short group kissed fresh sell levels (add back to early August entries) with fresh lows in store for September that will set up buy levels...

Thomas Schroeder