Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan, after the US and China, is the world’s third largest pharma industry, worth ~$70b in 2016. However, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData (<a href="https://www.dddmag.com/article/2017/02/japanese-pharmaceutical-market-rise-slightly-72b-2021" target="_blank">link</a>), the Japan pharma market is expected to report mere 0.3% growth over FY16-22e to $72b.One of the key reasons for flat growth rate is ongoing annual price cuts (bi-annual until two years ago), under which Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) cuts prices of adjudged expensive drugs to keep check on rising healthcare…

Japan, after the US and China, is the world’s third largest pharma industry, worth ~$70b in 2016. However, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData (link), the Japan pharma market is expected to report mere 0.3% growth over FY16-22e to $72b.One of the key reasons for flat growth rate is ongoing annual price cuts (bi-annual until two years ago), under which Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) cuts prices of adjudged expensive drugs to keep check on rising healthcare…

Japan Pharma - Drug Price Revision in April 2018

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

With 3Q Earning Season basically done, we looked back to see which names have done well in the first 3Q and are well positioned to beat full-year guidance / consensus and which ones are not. We first screened for names that have already achieved more than 100% of current Net Income consensus estimates.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP)</a> tops this list having already achieved 266% of full-year consensus net income. As of 3 quarters, Softbank has achieved ¥1tn of Net Income. This is compared to…

With 3Q Earning Season basically done, we looked back to see which names have done well in the first 3Q and are well positioned to beat full-year guidance / consensus and which ones are not. We first screened for names that have already achieved more than 100% of current Net Income consensus estimates.Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP) tops this list having already achieved 266% of full-year consensus net income. As of 3 quarters, Softbank has achieved ¥1tn of Net Income. This is compared to…

With 3Q Earnings Pretty Much Done Which Names Are Best / Worst Position for Full-Year End....

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The global pharma and biotech sector has underperformed by about four points this year, and five over three years – the divergence with other R&amp;D intensive, knowledge based sectors is stark.</li>
<li>I went short US biotech in mid-2015, when the global sector saw a burst of euphoric optimism – ex Japan pharma, most sub-indices haven’t regained those levels since.</li>
<li>Despite the assumed demographic tailwind, a declining R&amp;D productivity trend has been an issue since the late 1990s - a major new drug launch…</li>
</ul>


The global pharma and biotech sector has underperformed by about four points this year, and five over three years – the divergence with other R&amp;D intensive, knowledge based sectors is stark.
I went short US biotech in mid-2015, when the global sector saw a burst of euphoric optimism – ex Japan pharma, most sub-indices haven’t regained those levels since.
Despite the assumed demographic tailwind, a declining R&amp;D productivity trend has been an issue since the late 1990s - a major new drug launch…


Drugs Evolving Into 'Biological Software' to Boost Moribund Pharma Sector?

With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half. Names that could potentially beat full-year estimates. We basically screened for names that have already achieved greater than 60% of full-year consensus OP estimates and have also increased full-year Company OP guidance in the last month. <h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap above ¥50bn</li>
<li>Fiscal year ending on March 31</li>
<li>Greater than 60% of full-year OP consensus is…</li>
</ol>

With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half. Names that could potentially beat full-year estimates. We basically screened for names that have already achieved greater than 60% of full-year consensus OP estimates and have also increased full-year Company OP guidance in the last month. Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap above ¥50bn
Fiscal year ending on March 31
Greater than 60% of full-year OP consensus is…


Names Potentially Well Positioned to Beat Year-End Estimates

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Industry’s growth facilitated by healthcare spending as Japan’s society ages<ul><li>The revenue of Japanese pharmaceutical producers continued to grow in 2016, primarily due to rising sales to domestic healthcare service providers.</li></ul></li><li>Positive outlook clouded by government policies aimed at containing health costs<ul><li>The industry’s value growth potential will be clouded by rising pricing pressures both from government policies, and rising consumption share of generic drugs.</li></ul></li></ul>

Industry’s growth facilitated by healthcare spending as Japan’s society agesThe revenue of Japanese pharmaceutical producers continued to grow in 2016, primarily due to rising sales to domestic healthcare service providers.Positive outlook clouded by government policies aimed at containing health costsThe industry’s value growth potential will be clouded by rising pricing pressures both from government policies, and rising consumption share of generic drugs.

Industrial Capsule: Pharmaceuticals in Japan

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd focuses on the Research & Development, Manufacturing, Sales and Marketing and Import/Export of Pharmaceutical Drugs. The Company focuses on the following core therapeutic areas: Cardiovascular & Metabolic, Oncology, Central Nervous System, Respiratory & Immunology, General Medicine (Gastrointestinal & Genitourinary) and Vaccine.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)

Japan Pharma - Drug Price Revision in April 2018

Japan, after the US and China, is the world’s third largest pharma industry, worth ~$70b in 2016. However, according to research and consulting...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

With 3Q Earnings Pretty Much Done Which Names Are Best / Worst Position for Full-Year End....

With 3Q Earning Season basically done, we looked back to see which names have done well in the first 3Q and are well positioned to beat full-year...

Custom Products Group

Drugs Evolving Into 'Biological Software' to Boost Moribund Pharma Sector?

The global pharma and biotech sector has underperformed by about four points this year, and five over three years – the divergence with other...

Sean Maher

Names Potentially Well Positioned to Beat Year-End Estimates

With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half....

Custom Products Group

Industrial Capsule: Pharmaceuticals in Japan

Industry’s growth facilitated by healthcare spending as Japan’s society agesThe revenue of Japanese pharmaceutical producers continued to grow in...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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