European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a>'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the Spanish Government. </li>
<li>Uncertainty over the approval process has lowered the price to €4.31, given the low likelihood of counteroffers and the uncertainty of a potentially prolonged process.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 13.8%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 39% probability of deal completion. Recommendation is sell on strength.</li>
</ul>


According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of Talgo SA (TLGO SM)'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the Spanish Government. 
Uncertainty over the approval process has lowered the price to €4.31, given the low likelihood of counteroffers and the uncertainty of a potentially prolonged process.
Gross spread is 13.8%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 39% probability of deal completion. Recommendation is sell on strength.


Ganz MaVag Offers Sweetener to Spanish Government

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Murakami to tender stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected (for now) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.</li>
<li>If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.</li>
</ul>


Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

<ul>
<li>Ganz Mavag, a public/private consortium, requests authorisation for its €5/share offer for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a>. It needs approvals from Spain and seven other EMEA regulators.</li>
<li>Yesterday's close remains similar to the announcement date (7 March), gross spread of 11.3%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 48% probability of deal completion.</li>
<li>The Spanish Government will delay the authorization process. Vs. comparables and considering uncertainties regarding backlog execution, investing in the company seems somewhat risky. The risk/reward ratio is not particularly attractive.</li>
</ul>


Ganz Mavag, a public/private consortium, requests authorisation for its €5/share offer for 100% of Talgo SA (TLGO SM). It needs approvals from Spain and seven other EMEA regulators.
Yesterday's close remains similar to the announcement date (7 March), gross spread of 11.3%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 48% probability of deal completion.
The Spanish Government will delay the authorization process. Vs. comparables and considering uncertainties regarding backlog execution, investing in the company seems somewhat risky. The risk/reward ratio is not particularly attractive.


Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>According to Expansion, the Hungarian Ganz-MaVag Euroe Zrt consortium is giving final touches to the offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a> after obtaining verbal approval from the lenders.</li>
<li>The Minister of Transport assured that the Spanish Government will do everything possible to prevent the consortium from taking over Talgo due to hidden interests of the Viktor Órban Government.</li>
<li>However, the Government would need to justify its decision thoroughly to avoid potential legal challenges. For now, I would remain in the sidelines due to uncertainties about development and timing.</li>
</ul>


According to Expansion, the Hungarian Ganz-MaVag Euroe Zrt consortium is giving final touches to the offer for Talgo SA (TLGO SM) after obtaining verbal approval from the lenders.
The Minister of Transport assured that the Spanish Government will do everything possible to prevent the consortium from taking over Talgo due to hidden interests of the Viktor Órban Government.
However, the Government would need to justify its decision thoroughly to avoid potential legal challenges. For now, I would remain in the sidelines due to uncertainties about development and timing.


Magyar Vagon/​Talgo: Spanish Government Steps In

Spain

Talgo S.A. is a Spain-based specialized rolling stock engineering company focused on the designing, manufacturing and servicing of lightweight trains.

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Talgo SA (TLGO SM)

Ganz MaVag Offers Sweetener to Spanish Government

According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of Talgo SA (TLGO SM)'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

Ganz Mavag seeks approval for €5/share offer for Talgo SA. Market uncertainty reflected in spread. Spanish Government will delay FDI authorisation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Spanish Government Steps In

Hungarian consortium finalizes the presentation of an offer for Talgo SA. Spanish Government wary of takeover due to potential hidden interests...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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Ganz MaVag Offers Sweetener to Spanish Government

According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of Talgo SA (TLGO SM)'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

​Ganz Mavag seeks approval for €5/share offer for Talgo SA. Market uncertainty reflected in spread. Spanish Government will delay FDI authorisation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Magyar Vagon/​Talgo: Spanish Government Steps In

​Hungarian consortium finalizes the presentation of an offer for Talgo SA. Spanish Government wary of takeover due to potential hidden interests...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ganz Mavag seeks approval for €5/share offer for Talgo SA. Market uncertainty reflected in spread. Spanish Government will delay FDI authorisation.

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Spanish Government Steps In

Hungarian consortium finalizes the presentation of an offer for Talgo SA. Spanish Government wary of takeover due to potential hidden interests...