Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SHEIN announced it wants a role in reforming US de minimis import regulations</li>
<li>A tightening of de minimis threshholds could undermine SHEIN (and Temu) in the US</li>
<li>The de minimis issue highlights SHEIN's and Temu's lack of political allies in the US</li>
</ul>


SHEIN announced it wants a role in reforming US de minimis import regulations
A tightening of de minimis threshholds could undermine SHEIN (and Temu) in the US
The de minimis issue highlights SHEIN's and Temu's lack of political allies in the US


Why SHEIN and Temu Are Worried About Reform of De Minimis Imports into the US

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Update on the US postage fraud case we reported on earlier: it's far more expansive than previously reported, and last week the judge ordered that the trial begin in August</li>
<li>A new report from the US Congress attacks Temu, SHEIN on two fronts: Xinjiang-made goods and de minimus imports; tighter enforcement or new legislation could soon follow</li>
<li>It's unclear how the postage fraud case and growing Congressional concerns will play out; worst-case, both could dramatically undermine the direct-to-US consumer business model</li>
</ul>


Update on the US postage fraud case we reported on earlier: it's far more expansive than previously reported, and last week the judge ordered that the trial begin in August
A new report from the US Congress attacks Temu, SHEIN on two fronts: Xinjiang-made goods and de minimus imports; tighter enforcement or new legislation could soon follow
It's unclear how the postage fraud case and growing Congressional concerns will play out; worst-case, both could dramatically undermine the direct-to-US consumer business model


New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN

<ul>
<li>Reportedly, SHEN recently shared FY25 targets of US$2 bn Net, "mid-teens" sales growth</li>
<li>SHEIN faces familiar issues in France, where the company has just opened a physical store</li>
<li>The release of new FY25 financial targets suggest SHEIN is progressing towards an IPO </li>
</ul>


Reportedly, SHEN recently shared FY25 targets of US$2 bn Net, "mid-teens" sales growth
SHEIN faces familiar issues in France, where the company has just opened a physical store
The release of new FY25 financial targets suggest SHEIN is progressing towards an IPO 


SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, "Mid-Teens" Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?

<ul>
<li>Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29</li>
<li>In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process</li>
<li>We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress</li>
</ul>


Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress


SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

<ul>
<li>Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023</li>
<li>For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged</li>
<li>But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns</li>
</ul>


Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns


SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

United States

Target Corporation operates general merchandise discount stores. The Company focuses on merchandising operations which includes general merchandise and food discount stores and a fully integrated online business. Target also offers credit to qualified applicants through its branded proprietary credit cards.

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Target Corp (TGT US)

Why SHEIN and Temu Are Worried About Reform of De Minimis Imports into the US

SHEIN has indicated it wants a place at the table as US 'de minimis' import rules are updated. A tightening of these rules could severely undermine...

Tracking Traffic

New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN

We offer an update on a fascinating criminal case set to go to trial next month, plus we outline big risks posed by criticisms of Temu and SHEIN by...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, "Mid-Teens" Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?

Last week, SHEIN reportedly shared FY25 revenue and net income targets with potential investors, which suggests progress towards an IPO. News out...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

The end of the US "de minimis" loophole has already decimated inbound parcel volume. It will also alter the business models used by SHEIN & Temu,...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

Our personal shopping "experiment" suggests that SHEIN has lost most of the price advantage it enjoyed over US eComm giant Amazon a year and a half...

Tracking Traffic

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