External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>JSW Energy: Higher realisation and increased generation at the Vijayanagar and hydro plants boosted Q3FY22 PAT by 126% YoY to INR3.2bn (above ours and consensus estimate). Net generation, however, declined 2.6% YoY to 4.5bn units, owing to lower generation across the Ratnagiri plant (on plant maintenance). Accordingly, PLF declined for the Ratnagiri stations, but was up for Vijayanagar and hydro plants; it was largely flat for the Barmer station. EBITDA too increased 31% YoY, aided by an improved topline and flat fuel cost (given job work arrangement by the company).</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

JSW Energy: Higher realisation and increased generation at the Vijayanagar and hydro plants boosted Q3FY22 PAT by 126% YoY to INR3.2bn (above ours and consensus estimate). Net generation, however, declined 2.6% YoY to 4.5bn units, owing to lower generation across the Ratnagiri plant (on plant maintenance). Accordingly, PLF declined for the Ratnagiri stations, but was up for Vijayanagar and hydro plants; it was largely flat for the Barmer station. EBITDA too increased 31% YoY, aided by an improved topline and flat fuel cost (given job work arrangement by the company).
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: L&T Infotech, ICICI Lombard, JSW Energy, Tata Elxsi

<p>Tata Elxsi: We downgrade Tata Elxsi (TELX) to REDUCE (ADD earlier), based on diminishing margin of safety at 43x FY23E and following an in-line Q1 (both revenue and margin). While we remain positive on the company's prospects and growth leadership in ER&amp;D (24/26% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY21-24E), the unfavourable risk-reward can be construed from (1) concentrated growth pockets with ~25% of business driving ~50% of growth (IDV and medical devices-EPD), (2) reducing growth premium vs. ER&amp;D peer, and (3) the fact that its margin is currently at a peak (32.8% EBITDA margin adj.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Tata Elxsi: We downgrade Tata Elxsi (TELX) to REDUCE (ADD earlier), based on diminishing margin of safety at 43x FY23E and following an in-line Q1 (both revenue and margin). While we remain positive on the company's prospects and growth leadership in ER&amp;D (24/26% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY21-24E), the unfavourable risk-reward can be construed from (1) concentrated growth pockets with ~25% of business driving ~50% of growth (IDV and medical devices-EPD), (2) reducing growth premium vs. ER&amp;D peer, and (3) the fact that its margin is currently at a peak (32.8% EBITDA margin adj.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Elxsi, L&T Infotech

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 6.6 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.</p></div><div>
<p>The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.</p>
<p>At the next recategorization in July 2021, we see 7 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 13 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the 16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. There are 3 recent listings that will enter the mid cap segment with over 18 joining the small cap segment.</p>
<p>Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.</p>
</div>

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 6.6 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.
The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.
At the next recategorization in July 2021, we see 7 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 13 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the 16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. There are 3 recent listings that will enter the mid cap segment with over 18 joining the small cap segment.
Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.


India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major <em>countertrend </em>rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.</p>

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

<div><p>Last evening post market close, the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) published a list of three stocks that would be excluded from the Futures and Options segment of the market with effect from December 27. The list includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hexaware-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7882:1">Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-elxsi-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13949:1">Tata Elxsi Ltd (TELX IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a>.  </p></div><div><p>In our earlier Insights, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/india-equity-derivatives-the-tail-wags-the-dog" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30878">India Equity Derivatives - The Tail Wags the Dog</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-tail-wags-the-dog-redux" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31238">The Tail Wags the Dog Redux</a>, we highlighted the performance of stocks that were excluded from the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market in April and September this year and we recommend going short a basket of the three excluded stocks against their peers as a short term play.</p></div>

Last evening post market close, the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) published a list of three stocks that would be excluded from the Futures and Options segment of the market with effect from December 27. The list includes Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), Tata Elxsi Ltd (TELX IN) and Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN).  In our earlier Insights, India Equity Derivatives - The Tail Wags the Dog and The Tail Wags the Dog Redux, we highlighted the performance of stocks that were excluded from the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market in April and September this year and we recommend going short a basket of the three excluded stocks against their peers as a short term play.

India Equity Derivatives - F&O Exclusion Trades

India

Tata Elxsi Limited manufactures computers and workstations besides providing system design, software development and integration services. The Group supplies its products to a number of industries, including the automotive, metals, consumer products, finance, IT & Communications, energy, chemicals, engineering, pharmaceuticals, entertainment and agro industries.

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Tata Elxsi Ltd (TELX IN)

HSIE Results Daily: L&T Infotech, ICICI Lombard, JSW Energy, Tata Elxsi

JSW Energy: Higher realisation and increased generation at the Vijayanagar and hydro plants boosted Q3FY22 PAT by 126% YoY to INR3.2bn (above ours...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Elxsi, L&T Infotech

We downgrade Tata Elxsi (TELX) to REDUCE (ADD earlier), based on diminishing margin of safety at 43x FY23E and following an in-line Q1 (both...

HDFC Securities

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management

There are a lot of segment changes expected in July when AMFI recategorizes stocks and mutual funds start to rebalance their portfolios. We...

Brian Freitas

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is...

Vermilion Research

India Equity Derivatives - F&O Exclusion Trades

Last evening post market close, the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) published a list of three stocks that would be excluded from the Futures...

Brian Freitas

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