Rates Strategist, Bondcritic

Sumit Gupta

Rates Strategist

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. / Credit

In the first of our local currency bond series, we look into Indian INR bonds in the auto finance industry in India. We believe there are some green shoots emerging amid a slowdown in the automobile industry in India. We also believe the worst in the automobile industry is behind us and, from a credit perspective, a rating action on automobile companies with strong parents, is less likely. 
Automobile company stocks have staged a rebound since August this year. The NIFTY automobile index recovery since August has been stronger than the overall NIFTY 50 index recovery. This is not yet reflected in local currency credit spreads of auto finance companies. For investors with high risk appetite, gaining exposure to well-rated INR denominated auto-finance corporate bonds offers value, in our view. Alternatively, stock market investors may consider switching out of stocks into bonds.

In the first of our local currency bond series, we look into Indian INR bonds in the auto finance industry in India. We believe there are some green shoots emerging amid a slowdown in the automobile industry in India. We also believe the worst in the automobile industry is behind us and, from a credit perspective, a rating action on automobile companies with strong parents, is less likely. 
Automobile company stocks have staged a rebound since August this year. The NIFTY automobile index recovery since August has been stronger than the overall NIFTY 50 index recovery. This is not yet reflected in local currency credit spreads of auto finance companies. For investors with high risk appetite, gaining exposure to well-rated INR denominated auto-finance corporate bonds offers value, in our view. Alternatively, stock market investors may consider switching out of stocks into bonds.

India's Automobile - Market Recovery and Opportunities in INR Bonds

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

As the NIFTY index approaches new highs this week, we thought it useful to provide a thorough breakdown of India positioning among global emerging market managers.  <ul>
<li>India is the largest overweight among EM fund managers, yet the overweight has drifted lower since 2015</li>
<li>EM managers have been selling into strength.  India has seen the largest outflows among all countries since 2015</li>
<li>Confidence at an all-time low in Auto stocks.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> has seen significant investor flight</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC IN)</a> have seen ownership rise to record levels.  </li>
</ul>

As the NIFTY index approaches new highs this week, we thought it useful to provide a thorough breakdown of India positioning among global emerging market managers.  
India is the largest overweight among EM fund managers, yet the overweight has drifted lower since 2015
EM managers have been selling into strength.  India has seen the largest outflows among all countries since 2015
Confidence at an all-time low in Auto stocks.   Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) has seen significant investor flight

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC IN) have seen ownership rise to record levels.  


India:  Where Are We Now? A GEM Manager Perspective

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi/Honda, AOF, Unizo, SVI, Maanshan, Osram, Genting, KCC

Trung Nguyen

In our view, Tata Motors’ Q2/19-20 results were surprisingly good, beating consensus estimates. This was driven by i) revenue growth at JLR, on the back of a favourable product mix and slight growth in wholesale; and ii) a turn-around in profitability, due to a recovery in China, the Charge cost-cutting programme, and FX benefits from a weaker GBP.

  In our view, Tata Motors’ Q2/19-20 results were surprisingly good, beating consensus estimates. This was driven by i) revenue growth at JLR, on the back of a favourable product mix and slight growth in wholesale; and ii) a turn-around in profitability, due to a recovery in China, the Charge cost-cutting programme, and FX benefits from a weaker GBP. 

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

India

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited provides cars and commercial vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells fossil fuel and electric cars, as well as heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances, and mini-buses. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles serves customers worldwide.

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Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV IN)

India's Automobile - Market Recovery and Opportunities in INR Bonds

In the first of our local currency bond series, we look into Indian INR bonds in the auto finance industry in India. We believe there are some...

Bondcritic

India: Where Are We Now? A GEM Manager Perspective

As the NIFTY index approaches new highs this week, we thought it useful to provide a thorough breakdown of India positioning among global emerging...

Steven Holden

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor...

Lucror Analytics

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi/Honda, AOF, Unizo, SVI, Maanshan, Osram, Genting, KCC

Last Week in Event SPACE ... The Tender Offers for Honda Motor (7267 JP)'s three large auto parts affiliates Showa Corp (7274 JP), Keihin Corp...

David Blennerhassett

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

In our view, Tata Motors’ Q2/19-20 results were surprisingly good, beating consensus estimates. This was driven by i) revenue growth at JLR, on...

Lucror Analytics

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