Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We continue to reiterate our short call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> based on near term challenges.</li>
<li>May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments - India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales</li>
<li>This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.</li>
</ul>


We continue to reiterate our short call on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) based on near term challenges.
May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments - India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales
This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.


Reiterate Short Tata Motors - Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>  delivered a decent operational performance in Q4 FY25, with a flat topline and margin recovery, led by robust performance in the Jaguar Land Rover business.</li>
<li>While the Q4 FY25 performance was steady, we expect near-term results to remain muted.</li>
<li>Therefore, we present a case for shorting Tata Motors in the near term and outlook on individual segments.</li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)  delivered a decent operational performance in Q4 FY25, with a flat topline and margin recovery, led by robust performance in the Jaguar Land Rover business.
While the Q4 FY25 performance was steady, we expect near-term results to remain muted.
Therefore, we present a case for shorting Tata Motors in the near term and outlook on individual segments.


India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Chinese slowdown and JLR’s ICE phase-out pressure near-term margins, but Indian PV growth and EV leadership offer a strong domestic counterbalance.</li>
<li>Tata Motors is demerging its Commercial Vehicle and Finance arms to sharpen focus and unlock value across its core Passenger Vehicle and JLR businesses.</li>
<li>Tata Motors is transitioning from a cyclical turnaround story to a long-term structural play on India’s mobility and global EV transformation.</li>
</ul>


The Chinese slowdown and JLR’s ICE phase-out pressure near-term margins, but Indian PV growth and EV leadership offer a strong domestic counterbalance.
Tata Motors is demerging its Commercial Vehicle and Finance arms to sharpen focus and unlock value across its core Passenger Vehicle and JLR businesses.
Tata Motors is transitioning from a cyclical turnaround story to a long-term structural play on India’s mobility and global EV transformation.


Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

<ul>
<li>The US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, affecting Tata Motors’ JLR unit, where the US accounts for 22% of sales.</li>
<li>This could shave off 200–300 bps from JLR’s EBITDA margin or weaken US volumes if costs are passed on to consumers.  </li>
<li>Tata Motors' FY25 EBIT margin guidance of ≥8.5% looks ambitious; a realistic range may shift to 6.5–7.5% without swift demand or cost-side offsets.</li>
</ul>


The US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, affecting Tata Motors’ JLR unit, where the US accounts for 22% of sales.
This could shave off 200–300 bps from JLR’s EBITDA margin or weaken US volumes if costs are passed on to consumers.  
Tata Motors' FY25 EBIT margin guidance of ≥8.5% looks ambitious; a realistic range may shift to 6.5–7.5% without swift demand or cost-side offsets.


Can Tata Motors Withstand the 25% U.S. Auto Tariffs Or It Will Collapse Further?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RBI's MPC cut its policy repo rate by 50bp (to 5.5%, implying cuts totalling 100bp in the past half year), and also a phased 100bp cut in CRR by Dec'25. </li>
<li>Despite CPI inflation moderating below 3.2%YoY in Apr'25, the RBI has only slightly lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7% (from 4%), and hence returned to a neutral stance. </li>
<li>Given an above-normal monsoon, already strong Rabi crop, and low crude oil prices, we expect CPI inflation to average less than 3%YoY in Jun-Dec'25, allowing 75bp of further rate cuts. </li>
</ul>


RBI's MPC cut its policy repo rate by 50bp (to 5.5%, implying cuts totalling 100bp in the past half year), and also a phased 100bp cut in CRR by Dec'25. 
Despite CPI inflation moderating below 3.2%YoY in Apr'25, the RBI has only slightly lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7% (from 4%), and hence returned to a neutral stance. 
Given an above-normal monsoon, already strong Rabi crop, and low crude oil prices, we expect CPI inflation to average less than 3%YoY in Jun-Dec'25, allowing 75bp of further rate cuts. 


India: 50bp Rate Cut, 100bp of CRR Cuts Pave the Way for Faster RGDP Growth

India

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited provides cars and commercial vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells fossil fuel and electric cars, as well as heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances, and mini-buses. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles serves customers worldwide.

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Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV IN)

Reiterate Short Tata Motors - Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

Short call reiterated on Tata Motors Ltd due to weak May sales volume across segments in India and UK, lagging behind industry peers.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead

Tata Motors delivered a solid Q4 FY25 performance, but near-term results are expected to be muted. Shorting the stock is advised with a detailed...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

Tata Motors shareholders have given approval for the proposed demerger of the commercial Vehicle business into a separate, listed entity with a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Can Tata Motors Withstand the 25% U.S. Auto Tariffs Or It Will Collapse Further?

US auto import tariffs may impact Tata Motors' JLR unit, potentially reducing EBITDA margin and challenging FY26 year ahead.

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: 50bp Rate Cut, 100bp of CRR Cuts Pave the Way for Faster RGDP Growth

We forecast 8.5% real GDP growth in FY26, with another 75bp of rate cuts by Dec'25 (after 100bp cuts in Feb-Jun'25) boosting fixed investment,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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Reiterate Short Tata Motors - Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

​Short call reiterated on Tata Motors Ltd due to weak May sales volume across segments in India and UK, lagging behind industry peers.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead

​Tata Motors delivered a solid Q4 FY25 performance, but near-term results are expected to be muted. Shorting the stock is advised with a detailed...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

Tata Motors shareholders have given approval for the proposed demerger of the commercial Vehicle business into a separate, listed entity with a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Can Tata Motors Withstand the 25% U.S. Auto Tariffs Or It Will Collapse Further?

​US auto import tariffs may impact Tata Motors' JLR unit, potentially reducing EBITDA margin and challenging FY26 year ahead.

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: 50bp Rate Cut, 100bp of CRR Cuts Pave the Way for Faster RGDP Growth

We forecast 8.5% real GDP growth in FY26, with another 75bp of rate cuts by Dec'25 (after 100bp cuts in Feb-Jun'25) boosting fixed investment,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Short call reiterated on Tata Motors Ltd due to weak May sales volume across segments in India and UK, lagging behind industry peers.

Tata Motors delivered a solid Q4 FY25 performance, but near-term results are expected to be muted. Shorting the stock is advised with a detailed...

US auto import tariffs may impact Tata Motors' JLR unit, potentially reducing EBITDA margin and challenging FY26 year ahead.