India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>The Regulator, CERC sets new tariff norms after five years</h2><p>The Power Sector Regulator, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) will start the process of setting tariff regulations for the next five years starting 1st April 2019. (<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/cerc-readying-paper-on-tariff-norms-for-2019-24/articleshow/64282204.cms" target="_blank">Source</a>)</p><p>The tentative timelines could be as follows:</p><ol>
<li>June 2018 - Release of draft paper by CERC for public consultations and comments from stakeholders.</li>
<li>August/September 2018 - Public hearing on draft paper from the stakeholders including consumer groups.</li>
<li>…</li>
</ol>

The Regulator, CERC sets new tariff norms after five yearsThe Power Sector Regulator, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) will start the process of setting tariff regulations for the next five years starting 1st April 2019. (Source)The tentative timelines could be as follows:
June 2018 - Release of draft paper by CERC for public consultations and comments from stakeholders.
August/September 2018 - Public hearing on draft paper from the stakeholders including consumer groups.
…


India Power Sector: Regulator Will Tweak Tariff Norms from April 2019 - Potential Winners and Losers

<p>Not only the people familiar with Indian power sector but even several others including from banking, capital goods, macro economy and investors would very well remember the enthusiasm and excitement Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) had generated in India since their launch in 2005. The plan was to build sixteen coal based power plants of 4,000MW each but the entire scheme has proved to be a big disaster and no one (the Govt, project developers i.e. power companies and lenders) can escape the blame. The UMPP misadventure has many important messages but the primary one is that it is disastrous to forget the demand-supply basics and growth in size/revenue is bad when profitability is compromised. Unfortunately, the domino effect such large scale schemes generates is bad for the entire economy and not just for a sector.</p>

Not only the people familiar with Indian power sector but even several others including from banking, capital goods, macro economy and investors would very well remember the enthusiasm and excitement Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) had generated in India since their launch in 2005. The plan was to build sixteen coal based power plants of 4,000MW each but the entire scheme has proved to be a big disaster and no one (the Govt, project developers i.e. power companies and lenders) can escape the blame. The UMPP misadventure has many important messages but the primary one is that it is disastrous to forget the demand-supply basics and growth in size/revenue is bad when profitability is compromised. Unfortunately, the domino effect such large scale schemes generates is bad for the entire economy and not just for a sector.

India: Death of UMPP Dream and What Policy Makers, Lenders and Project Developers Can Learn from It?

<p>The major challenges India's power sector is struggling with are not secret but when some of these issues are raised by the biggest lender in the country, it is time for the Govt to listen. The failure of UDAY (key initiative launched for distribution sector), no resolution on loss making power plants and no interest of DISCOMs in long term power purchase agreements make the situation precarious and there are serious implications for not just power sector but also for lenders, fuel suppliers and equipment manufacturers.</p>

The major challenges India's power sector is struggling with are not secret but when some of these issues are raised by the biggest lender in the country, it is time for the Govt to listen. The failure of UDAY (key initiative launched for distribution sector), no resolution on loss making power plants and no interest of DISCOMs in long term power purchase agreements make the situation precarious and there are serious implications for not just power sector but also for lenders, fuel suppliers and equipment manufacturers.

India: Challenges in Power Sector Are Well Known but Will Policy Makers Now Listen to SBI Chairman?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>For some, it’s a slow grind. For others, it's less slow. We tend to focus on the weakest indebted companies in India, those that simply can not service their loans, due to interest cover registering less than 1x. Perhaps more interesting for what’s to come, is to examine some of the largest debt holders, where interest coverage is rapidly worsening, but where the figures were above 1x as at December 2017. It is also illustrative to see how quickly companies in India are seeing their financial…</p>

For some, it’s a slow grind. For others, it's less slow. We tend to focus on the weakest indebted companies in India, those that simply can not service their loans, due to interest cover registering less than 1x. Perhaps more interesting for what’s to come, is to examine some of the largest debt holders, where interest coverage is rapidly worsening, but where the figures were above 1x as at December 2017. It is also illustrative to see how quickly companies in India are seeing their financial…

India - Grind of Corporate Stress, to Worsen

<div>
<h2>Thermal Power in India and Winner's curse</h2>
<p>Around 12-13 years ago, when the Power Generation space had just opened up in India, there was mad rush to add fresh generation capacity. The situation was so bad that the price per unit and viability of project was not even a consideration for many. Among the private utilities, except for Torrent Power and CESC, almost every other company made bids which were irrational and it was clear even at the time when they won these projects that they would…</p>
</div>


Thermal Power in India and Winner's curse
Around 12-13 years ago, when the Power Generation space had just opened up in India, there was mad rush to add fresh generation capacity. The situation was so bad that the price per unit and viability of project was not even a consideration for many. Among the private utilities, except for Torrent Power and CESC, almost every other company made bids which were irrational and it was clear even at the time when they won these projects that they would…


India: The Winner's Curse Will Be Back and Next Time, It Could Be in Renewables

India

Tata Power Company Limited generates and supplies electricity in Mumbai and its suburbs. The Company also constructs and operates independent power plants as well as captive power plants for industrial concerns. Tata Power also provides various services related to electricity distribution, erects and commissions transmission lines, and is diversifying into the telecommunications market.

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Tata Power (TPWR IN)

India Power Sector: Regulator Will Tweak Tariff Norms from April 2019 - Potential Winners and Losers

The Regulator, CERC sets new tariff norms after five yearsThe Power Sector Regulator, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) will start...

Pankaj Sharma

India: Death of UMPP Dream and What Policy Makers, Lenders and Project Developers Can Learn from It?

Not only the people familiar with Indian power sector but even several others including from banking, capital goods, macro economy and investors...

Pankaj Sharma

India: Challenges in Power Sector Are Well Known but Will Policy Makers Now Listen to SBI Chairman?

The major challenges India's power sector is struggling with are not secret but when some of these issues are raised by the biggest lender in the...

Pankaj Sharma

India - Grind of Corporate Stress, to Worsen

For some, it’s a slow grind. For others, it's less slow. We tend to focus on the weakest indebted companies in India, those that simply can not...

Daniel Tabbush

India: The Winner's Curse Will Be Back and Next Time, It Could Be in Renewables

Thermal Power in India and Winner's curse Around 12-13 years ago, when the Power Generation space had just opened up in India, there was mad rush...

Pankaj Sharma

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)