Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...</li>
<li>...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059</li>
<li>Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...
...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059
Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More


DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taylor Morrison Home Corp A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Taylor Morrison's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference call highlighted a mixed performance amid varied market conditions.</li><li>On the positive side, the company saw a commendable delivery of 3,200 homes at an average price of $600,000, with an adjusted home closings gross margin of 23.9%.</li><li>The financial results exceeded prior guidance, with adjusted earnings per share hitting $1.97 and a 12% year-on-year growth in book value per share to approximately $52.</li></ul>

Taylor Morrison's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference call highlighted a mixed performance amid varied market conditions.On the positive side, the company saw a commendable delivery of 3,200 homes at an average price of $600,000, with an adjusted home closings gross margin of 23.9%.The financial results exceeded prior guidance, with adjusted earnings per share hitting $1.97 and a 12% year-on-year growth in book value per share to approximately $52.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: What Is Its Competitive Differentiation in Strategic Markets? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Taylor Morrison reported a robust beginning to 2024, reflecting a potent start with strong sales activities and margins that outperformed expectations.</li><li>The quarterly disclosure showcased significant improvements in home closure margins and an increase in net sales orders by 29%, propelled by an efficient sales pace of 3.7% per community.</li><li>Additionally, the company has raised its full-year guidance, projecting approximately 12,500 home deliveries with an enhancement in home closings gross margin up to 24%, and anticipates maintaining an average closing price between $600,000 and $610,000.</li></ul>

Taylor Morrison reported a robust beginning to 2024, reflecting a potent start with strong sales activities and margins that outperformed expectations.The quarterly disclosure showcased significant improvements in home closure margins and an increase in net sales orders by 29%, propelled by an efficient sales pace of 3.7% per community.Additionally, the company has raised its full-year guidance, projecting approximately 12,500 home deliveries with an enhancement in home closings gross margin up to 24%, and anticipates maintaining an average closing price between $600,000 and $610,000.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: Can The Acquisition of Pyatt Builders Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>This is our first report on public homebuilder, Taylor Morrison Home Corp.</li><li>The company reported strong performance in 2023, with total home deliveries amounting to 11,495, generating $7.2 billion in homebuilding revenue.</li><li>This yielded a healthy adjusted home closings gross margin of 24%, driving adjusted earnings of $7.54 per diluted share.</li></ul>

This is our first report on public homebuilder, Taylor Morrison Home Corp.The company reported strong performance in 2023, with total home deliveries amounting to 11,495, generating $7.2 billion in homebuilding revenue.This yielded a healthy adjusted home closings gross margin of 24%, driving adjusted earnings of $7.54 per diluted share.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: Initiation of Coverage - A Shift Towards Affordable Housing Benefiting Them Immensely? - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

United States

Taylor Morrison Home Corp is a homebuilder in North America.  The Company builds single-family detached and attached homes and develop land, which includes lifestyle and master planned communities.

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Taylor Morrison Home Corp A (TMHC US)

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

$DJI and Russell 2000 $IWM Breaking Out; Staying Bullish $SPX $QQQ; Bullish Developments Continue: DJI, IWM, $RSP Breakouts, RS on $XLP at new...

Vermilion Research

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: What Is Its Competitive Differentiation in Strategic Markets? - Major Drivers

Taylor Morrison's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference call highlighted a mixed performance amid varied market conditions. On the positive...

Baptista Research

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: Can The Acquisition of Pyatt Builders Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Taylor Morrison reported a robust beginning to 2024, reflecting a potent start with strong sales activities and margins that outperformed...

Baptista Research

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: Initiation of Coverage - A Shift Towards Affordable Housing Benefiting Them Immensely? - Major Drivers

This is our first report on public homebuilder, Taylor Morrison Home Corp. The company reported strong performance in 2023, with total home...

Baptista Research

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

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