Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> has entered a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a> at A$68.5/share implying an equity value of A$9.1bn and an Enterprise Value of A$8.8bn.</li>
<li>The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last close and a larger premium to VWAPs ranging from 30 days to 180 days.</li>
<li>There will be ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>'s last trading day (expected second half of 2024).</li>
</ul>



Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) has entered a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire Altium Ltd (ALU AU) at A$68.5/share implying an equity value of A$9.1bn and an Enterprise Value of A$8.8bn.
The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last close and a larger premium to VWAPs ranging from 30 days to 180 days.
There will be ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) on Altium Ltd (ALU AU)'s last trading day (expected second half of 2024).


Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index ends on 29 February with results announced on 8 March and implemented on 15 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> are very close to deletion zone and price moves over the next couple of weeks are important.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> is also a deletion from a global index in February and a lower stock price could lead to deletion from this index too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index ends on 29 February with results announced on 8 March and implemented on 15 March.

Lendlease Group (LLC AU), IDP Education (IEL AU) and IGO Ltd (IGO AU) are very close to deletion zone and price moves over the next couple of weeks are important.

IGO Ltd (IGO AU) is also a deletion from a global index in February and a lower stock price could lead to deletion from this index too.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Should I Stay or Should IGO?

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a> could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.</li>
<li>There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.</li>
</ul>



AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU) could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.
There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.
With the exception of A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> has been stuck in the 7000-7600 range for the past 2 years, with a brief dive to 6500 during the summer of 2022. </li>
<li>If we consider the bottom at 6411 in October 2022, the index may have started to build an uptrend since then, but failed repeatedly to breach past the 7600 barrier.</li>
<li>After a brief correction in August 2023, the index is currently rising, but soon it will encounter WEEKLY resistance that could hamper its chances of breaking out of its range.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX has been stuck in the 7000-7600 range for the past 2 years, with a brief dive to 6500 during the summer of 2022. 
If we consider the bottom at 6411 in October 2022, the index may have started to build an uptrend since then, but failed repeatedly to breach past the 7600 barrier.
After a brief correction in August 2023, the index is currently rising, but soon it will encounter WEEKLY resistance that could hamper its chances of breaking out of its range.


EQD | SP/ASX200 Index: Will It Break Out of Its Range?

Australia

Technology One Limited is an Australian-based company that is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, implementation, support, and distribution of financial management and enterprise software solutions. The Company has operations in New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the South Pacific, and Malaysia.

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Technology One (TNE AU)

Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

Renesas has entered a SIA to acquire Altium at A$68.5/share for an implied equity value of A$9.1bn. The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Should I Stay or Should IGO?

There are 3 stocks close to the deletion zone for the March rebal. IGO is also a passive sell from a global index in Feb. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

There are 2 potential deletes and another 3 stocks that are close deletes for the MVIS AU Equal Weight Index. Just the capping changes back to...

Brian Freitas

EQD | SP/ASX200 Index: Will It Break Out of Its Range?

The ASX 200 INDEX has repeatedly failed its attempts to breach the 7600 barrier for the past 2 years. Currently rising, but will face strong...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

Renesas has entered a SIA to acquire Altium at A$68.5/share for an implied equity value of A$9.1bn. The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Should I Stay or Should IGO?

There are 3 stocks close to the deletion zone for the March rebal. IGO is also a passive sell from a global index in Feb. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

There are 2 potential deletes and another 3 stocks that are close deletes for the MVIS AU Equal Weight Index. Just the capping changes back to...

Brian Freitas

EQD | SP/ASX200 Index: Will It Break Out of Its Range?

​The ASX 200 INDEX has repeatedly failed its attempts to breach the 7600 barrier for the past 2 years. Currently rising, but will face strong...

Nico Rosti

The ASX 200 INDEX has repeatedly failed its attempts to breach the 7600 barrier for the past 2 years. Currently rising, but will face strong...