Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> broke out to a new YTD high.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.


China Feihe (6186 HK) broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  Techtronic Industries (669 HK) broke out to a new YTD high.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.</li>
<li>The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.</li>
<li>The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%.  Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception.  This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.


<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 5.79% in July, outperforming its benchmark by 0.30%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 52% to 74% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio's largest exposures are in the industrial, financial, and technology platform sectors. The portfolio has no exposure to the materials or energy sectors.</li>
<li>The portfolio has generated a Sharpe ratio of 1.20 since inception, compared with 0.69 for the benchmark.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 19.4%.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 5.79% in July, outperforming its benchmark by 0.30%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 52% to 74% since inception.
The portfolio's largest exposures are in the industrial, financial, and technology platform sectors. The portfolio has no exposure to the materials or energy sectors.
The portfolio has generated a Sharpe ratio of 1.20 since inception, compared with 0.69 for the benchmark.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 19.4%.


<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market has bounced strongly in July as northern Asian markets decline amid the global AI/semiconductor sell-off.</li>
<li>The materials, energy, and healthcare sectors are the top performers in July.  Value, dividend yield, and large-cap factors have been top investment factors in the HK market this year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/precision-tsugami-china-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26199:1" rel="noopener">Precision Tsugami (China) (1651 HK)</a> released its FY26 results, prompting price target and rating upgrades from analysts benefiting from downstream sectors such as NEVs, advanced equipment, and AI.
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market has bounced strongly in July as northern Asian markets decline amid the global AI/semiconductor sell-off.
The materials, energy, and healthcare sectors are the top performers in July.  Value, dividend yield, and large-cap factors have been top investment factors in the HK market this year.

Precision Tsugami (China) (1651 HK) released its FY26 results, prompting price target and rating upgrades from analysts benefiting from downstream sectors such as NEVs, advanced equipment, and AI.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (7/22/26)

Hong Kong

Techtronic Industries designs, produces, and markets cordless power tools, outdoor power equipment, hand tools, and floor care appliances. Its diverse brand portfolio includes Milwaukee, Ryobi, AEG, Hoover, and Dirt Devil. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Techtronic Industries (669 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (August 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60%...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (July 2026)

We made several adjustments to the portfolio yesterday. We sold the Baidu (9888) position since it hit our stop-loss level. We also sold the...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (7/22/26)

The Hong Kong market has bounced strongly in July as northern Asian markets decline amid the global AI/semiconductor sell-off.

David Mudd

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