Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-to-end-the-year-with-seasonal-strength-onward-to-12-000-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206735" rel="noopener">Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton</a>, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. </li>
</ul>


In our previous insight Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. 

Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.
FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. 


Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> fails in May 2024; 17 months later, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> merge.</li>
<li>The Anglo Teck portfolio will have more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual copper production, anchored by six world-class copper assets with more than 70% copper exposure.</li>
<li>The company will divest its non-core assets, including DeBeers, steelmaking coal, nickel, and other similar assets, and pivot to consolidating/growing its copper operations.</li>
</ul>



Anglo American (AAL LN) - BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) fails in May 2024; 17 months later, Anglo American (AAL LN) - Teck Resources (TECK US) merge.
The Anglo Teck portfolio will have more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual copper production, anchored by six world-class copper assets with more than 70% copper exposure.
The company will divest its non-core assets, including DeBeers, steelmaking coal, nickel, and other similar assets, and pivot to consolidating/growing its copper operations.


Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

<ul>
<li>COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. </li>
<li>We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.</li>
<li>Follow our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaches-10k-usd-easy-journey-to-11k-usd-ton-on-lower-inventories-in-the-short-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:191702" rel="noopener">Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term</a> </li>
</ul>


COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. 
We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.
Follow our prior insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term 


Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. </li>
<li>The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.</li>
<li>We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. 
The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.
We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like Southern Copper (SCCO US) , Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US).


Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Over the past week we visited parts of Kazakhstan, the 9th largest country in the world.</li>
<li>Long a favorite of the oil and uranium industry the country is now attracting more metals and mining exploration activity.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40384:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has assembled the 4th largest exploration package and is looking for elephant sized gold/copper deposits. Success at any of its projects could catapult shares higher.</a></li>
</ul>


Over the past week we visited parts of Kazakhstan, the 9th largest country in the world.
Long a favorite of the oil and uranium industry the country is now attracting more metals and mining exploration activity.
Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has assembled the 4th largest exploration package and is looking for elephant sized gold/copper deposits. Success at any of its projects could catapult shares higher.


Arras Minerals: Looking for Elephant Sized Gold/Copper Deposits in Kazakhstan

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK US)

Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

Copper has just passed 11,000 USD/ton. We believe we are still at the nascent stages of our bullish call on copper, and the next stop is 12,000 USD...

Sameer Taneja

Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

The copper complex is consolidating, with major players pivoting by divesting their non-copper assets. The Anglo-Teck merger is a clear indication...

Sameer Taneja

Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

With the Trump administration now leaning towards a 50% import tariff in the short term, copper prices on the LME have gained upward momentum. How...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

With the slew of Chinese stimulus measures, we discuss how to play the copper price increasing beyond 10,000 USD/ton in the near-term.

Sameer Taneja

Arras Minerals: Looking for Elephant Sized Gold/Copper Deposits in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, a top destination for oil and uranium, now seeing increased interest in metals and mining exploration, with Arras Minerals holding...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

Copper has just passed 11,000 USD/ton. We believe we are still at the nascent stages of our bullish call on copper, and the next stop is 12,000 USD...

Sameer Taneja

Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

The copper complex is consolidating, with major players pivoting by divesting their non-copper assets. The Anglo-Teck merger is a clear indication...

Sameer Taneja

Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

With the Trump administration now leaning towards a 50% import tariff in the short term, copper prices on the LME have gained upward momentum. How...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

With the slew of Chinese stimulus measures, we discuss how to play the copper price increasing beyond 10,000 USD/ton in the near-term.

Sameer Taneja

Arras Minerals: Looking for Elephant Sized Gold/Copper Deposits in Kazakhstan

​Kazakhstan, a top destination for oil and uranium, now seeing increased interest in metals and mining exploration, with Arras Minerals holding...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Kazakhstan, a top destination for oil and uranium, now seeing increased interest in metals and mining exploration, with Arras Minerals holding...