Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Equity Bottom-Up

Teekay Tankers Ltd Class A / Equity Bottom-Up

Teekay Tankers (TNK US)-Reduce Fair Value on Asset Disposal; Maintain Neutral Stance<ul><li>
Revenue close to our estimate, but earnings in red: Teekay Tankers’ (TNK’s) operating revenue fell 16.5% y/y in 3Q16 to USD 104.6m (slightly above our estimate of USD 100.3m) primarily as a result of the double-digit decline in freight rates across all vessel classes. TCE revenue dropped 27% y/y to USD 89.7m on account of reduced top line and higher voyage expenses, in line with our estimate of USD 93.2m but…</li></ul>

Teekay Tankers (TNK US)-Reduce Fair Value on Asset Disposal; Maintain Neutral Stance
Revenue close to our estimate, but earnings in red: Teekay Tankers’ (TNK’s) operating revenue fell 16.5% y/y in 3Q16 to USD 104.6m (slightly above our estimate of USD 100.3m) primarily as a result of the double-digit decline in freight rates across all vessel classes. TCE revenue dropped 27% y/y to USD 89.7m on account of reduced top line and higher voyage expenses, in line with our estimate of USD 93.2m but…

Teekay Tankers (TNK US)-Reduce Fair Value on Asset Disposal; Maintain Neutral Stance

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Pacific Basin Shipping / Equity Bottom-Up

DRYS has now spiked (before suspension) more than 2000% post Trump and as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) popped above 1,000. Most of the trading activity in US shipping names has happened over the last two days. As a result, we had multiple TV segments on CNBC on Wednesday on these shares. The <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/11/16/unmoored-from-reality-dryships-halted-after-1500-post-election-rally/" target="_blank">WSJ</a> also took to writing on the topic for generalist readers. …This funky stock roller coaster, as well as longer-term stock holds are quickly recapped further below.The worst shipping companies, including…

DRYS has now spiked (before suspension) more than 2000% post Trump and as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) popped above 1,000. Most of the trading activity in US shipping names has happened over the last two days. As a result, we had multiple TV segments on CNBC on Wednesday on these shares. The WSJ also took to writing on the topic for generalist readers. …This funky stock roller coaster, as well as longer-term stock holds are quickly recapped further below.The worst shipping companies, including…

Shipping Stocks Go Bananas, the Worst Rising the Most

Teekay Tankers (TNK US) - Challenging Outlook, Pressured Dividend, Downgrade to Neutral<ul><li>
Earnings lower than consensus, but close to our estimates: Teekay Tankers’ (TNK’s) operating revenue surged 25.5% y/y in 2Q16 to USD 139.6m (4.2% south of our estimate of USD 145.8m) despite a double-digit decline in realised freight rates for Suezmaxes and Aframaxes – the company’s representative fleet – primarily because of 26.3% increase in operating days on account of an expanded fleet. TCE revenue soared…</li></ul>

Teekay Tankers (TNK US) - Challenging Outlook, Pressured Dividend, Downgrade to Neutral
Earnings lower than consensus, but close to our estimates: Teekay Tankers’ (TNK’s) operating revenue surged 25.5% y/y in 2Q16 to USD 139.6m (4.2% south of our estimate of USD 145.8m) despite a double-digit decline in realised freight rates for Suezmaxes and Aframaxes – the company’s representative fleet – primarily because of 26.3% increase in operating days on account of an expanded fleet. TCE revenue soared…

Teekay Tankers (TNK US) - Challenging Outlook, Pressured Dividend, Downgrade to Neutral

We have scaled down our fair value estimate to USD 6.40 per share (from USD 8.60 earlier) but maintained our Attractive view on the stock, as we believe its profitability will decline slightly with expected weakness in freight rates from the second half of the year when newbuild vessels join the fleet. We have also placed the company in the Medium risk category with a stable outlook over the long term; however, gearing higher than its peers is a concern. Aggressive fleet expansion at a time when tanker shipping is leading the maritime industry will be the key catalyst for the company.

We have scaled down our fair value estimate to USD 6.40 per share (from USD 8.60 earlier) but maintained our Attractive view on the stock, as we believe its profitability will decline slightly with expected weakness in freight rates from the second half of the year when newbuild vessels join the fleet. We have also placed the company in the Medium risk category with a stable outlook over the long term; however, gearing higher than its peers is a concern. Aggressive fleet expansion at a time when tanker shipping is leading the maritime industry will be the key catalyst for the company.

Teekay Tankers (TNK US) – High Spot Exposure and Increased Leverage; a Reason to Worry

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures added.Of all the interesting things that happened over the last few weeks, to me, were two reversals most investors would have not gone for until they happened. Ultimately, it was a story about the market expecting key commodities to retreat, only to find the reverse.Interesting piece from Rickards last week is discussed.

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures added.Of all the interesting things that happened over the last few weeks, to me, were two reversals most investors would have not gone for until they happened. Ultimately, it was a story about the market expecting key commodities to retreat, only to find the reverse.Interesting piece from Rickards last week is discussed.

Interesting Counter-Intuitive Reversals Last Few Weeks (Breakouts…Positions…Key Notes)

United States

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Teekay Tankers Ltd Class A (TNK US)

Teekay Tankers (TNK US)-Reduce Fair Value on Asset Disposal; Maintain Neutral Stance

Teekay Tankers (TNK US)-Reduce Fair Value on Asset Disposal; Maintain Neutral Stance Revenue close to our estimate, but earnings in red: Teekay...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Shipping Stocks Go Bananas, the Worst Rising the Most

DRYS has now spiked (before suspension) more than 2000% post Trump and as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) popped above 1,000. Most of the trading...

Charles De Trenck

Teekay Tankers (TNK US) - Challenging Outlook, Pressured Dividend, Downgrade to Neutral

Teekay Tankers (TNK US) - Challenging Outlook, Pressured Dividend, Downgrade to Neutral Earnings lower than consensus, but close to our estimates:...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Teekay Tankers (TNK US) – High Spot Exposure and Increased Leverage; a Reason to Worry

We have scaled down our fair value estimate to USD 6.40 per share (from USD 8.60 earlier) but maintained our Attractive view on the stock, as we...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Interesting Counter-Intuitive Reversals Last Few Weeks (Breakouts…Positions…Key Notes)

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures...

Charles De Trenck

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)