Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The clearest trade to me right now... Is monetizing the volatility in Oil through options&nbsp;Now I am exceptionally bearish on oil for a range of different factors &amp; think we break $40 in 2Q if not already in Apr (hence symmetrically very bearish on the Macro aspects of CA &amp; NO as well as very bullish on USDCAD &amp; USDNOK)However, that&rsquo;s another conversation &ndash; I just wanted to highlight the huge swings we&rsquo;ve been seeing in oil &ndash; given the hocus-pocus headlines that drive the up days &amp; the fundamental data points that drive the down days.

The clearest trade to me right now... Is monetizing the volatility in Oil through options&nbsp;Now I am exceptionally bearish on oil for a range of different factors &amp; think we break $40 in 2Q if not already in Apr (hence symmetrically very bearish on the Macro aspects of CA &amp; NO as well as very bullish on USDCAD &amp; USDNOK)However, that&rsquo;s another conversation &ndash; I just wanted to highlight the huge swings we&rsquo;ve been seeing in oil &ndash; given the hocus-pocus headlines that drive the up days &amp; the fundamental data points that drive the down days.

Oil is going to break $40 before E-2Q, but there is money to be made whether you are a bull or bear

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Yemen has once again hit the headlines as structural issues lead to political uncertainty and tumult. The situation may not be as bad as the headlines are likely to make it&nbsp;out however and we believe it will be contained.

Yemen has once again hit the headlines as structural issues lead to political uncertainty and tumult. The situation may not be as bad as the headlines are likely to make it&nbsp;out however and we believe it will be contained.

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor for energy stocks to recouple to downside and for spending cuts to spread from capex to dividends for majors.

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor for energy stocks to recouple to downside and for spending cuts to spread from capex to dividends for majors.

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>Speculative liquidation of crude oil positions opens up an opportunity</li>
<li>A seasonally strong period for crude tanker rates coming up</li>
<li>Company option scheme for senior management approved. Strike above current price</li>
</ul>


Speculative liquidation of crude oil positions opens up an opportunity
A seasonally strong period for crude tanker rates coming up
Company option scheme for senior management approved. Strike above current price


Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation - Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?

<ul>
<li>All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction</li>
<li>The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off</li>
<li>Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand</li>
</ul>


All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction
The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off
Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand


Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

United States

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

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Teekay Tankers Ltd Class A (TNK US)

Oil is going to break $40 before E-2Q, but there is money to be made whether you are a bull or bear

The clearest trade to me right now... Is monetizing the volatility in Oil through options Now I am exceptionally bearish on oil for a range of...

Kay Van-Petersen

Yemen - Dancing on the heads of snakes

Yemen has once again hit the headlines as structural issues lead to political uncertainty and tumult. The situation may not be as bad as the...

Emad Mostaque

Will an Iran deal crack oil?

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor...

Emad Mostaque

Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oil is going to break $40 before E-2Q, but there is money to be made whether you are a bull or bear

The clearest trade to me right now... Is monetizing the volatility in Oil through options Now I am exceptionally bearish on oil for a range of...

Kay Van-Petersen

Yemen - Dancing on the heads of snakes

Yemen has once again hit the headlines as structural issues lead to political uncertainty and tumult. The situation may not be as bad as the...

Emad Mostaque

Will an Iran deal crack oil?

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor...

Emad Mostaque

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation - Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?

Although this piece timed the bottom to the day, there is more upside. It is still a laggard as it is "only" up ~40% from a depressed price....

Rikki Malik

Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

​Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...

Rikki Malik

Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...