Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...</li>
<li>...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."</li>
<li>That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish as long as $141.50 support on ACWI-US continues to hold. We discussed last week (2/26/26 Int'l Compass) to trim exposure to Korea and Taiwan...
...Noting for Korea that "with recent upside acceleration there is risk of a larger pullback following the current parabolic upside period."
That pullback has begun to materialize, and the growing list of concerns that we have highlighted since early-February remains a problem for global equities near-term


Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>May saw selective convergence reassert itself across Europe’s dual-class universe, with broad tightening in several structurally wide and liquidity-driven spreads offsetting renewed widening in Carlsberg and Grifols.</li>
<li>Both median and mean tightened, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by liquidity, concentrated ownership, implementation constraints and episodic positioning reversals across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken, Media-for-Europe and Telecom Italia delivered the strongest tightening moves in May, while Carlsberg and Grifols reversed sharply, re-widening after April’s convergence phase.</li>
</ul>


May saw selective convergence reassert itself across Europe’s dual-class universe, with broad tightening in several structurally wide and liquidity-driven spreads offsetting renewed widening in Carlsberg and Grifols.
Both median and mean tightened, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by liquidity, concentrated ownership, implementation constraints and episodic positioning reversals across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Handelsbanken, Media-for-Europe and Telecom Italia delivered the strongest tightening moves in May, while Carlsberg and Grifols reversed sharply, re-widening after April’s convergence phase.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '26 Report

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Sweden

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson develops and manufactures network equipment and software, as well as services for network and business operations. The Company's portfolio also includes products for the enterprise, cable, mobile platform, and power module markets.

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsso (ERICA SS)

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Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsso (ERICA SS)

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on ACWI-US Holding for Now

Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on $ACWI Holding for Now; Discussed to trim exposure to Korea $EWY and Taiwan...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '26 Report

European dual-class spreads tightened again in May as liquidity-driven convergence resumed. Handelsbanken, MFE and Telecom Italia led compression,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

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